{"id":5358,"date":"2026-01-15T15:34:47","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T20:34:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/?p=5358"},"modified":"2026-01-27T20:13:42","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T01:13:42","slug":"sudan-aftermath-of-al-fashirs-fall-to-the-rapid-support-forces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/?p=5358","title":{"rendered":"Sudan: Aftermath of al-Fashir\u2019s Fall to the Rapid Support Forces"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Andrew McGregor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Terrorism Monitor 24(1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>January 15, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Executive Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured al-Fashir in late October after an 18-month siege, consolidating RSF control over western Sudan and providing a potential capital for a new state.<\/li>\n<li>After entering al-Fashir, the RSF carried out mass looting, ethnic targeting, and killed 460 people at the al-Saudi maternity hospital in an attack that brought international outrage.<\/li>\n<li>Parallel RSF sieges in Kordofan indicate a strategy to divide Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) is struggling to maintain control, but still currently favors a military solution over diplomatic negotiations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5361\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Open-450x300.jpg 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a>The capture of Khartoum by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the first months of its struggle with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) was possibly the most shocking moment of the ongoing civil war in Sudan. While the RSF has since been driven out of the capital, the RSF\u2019s 18-month siege and capture of al-Fashir in late October is likely to have a greater long-term impact. The collapse of resistance in the North Darfur capital consolidates the paramilitary group\u2019s hold over its power base in western Sudan while providing a potential capital for the new state the RSF and its commander Muhammad Hamdan Daglo \u201cHemetti\u201d aim to create.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Al-Fashir\u2019s Failed Defense<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Al-Fashir was defended by the SAF\u2019s 6<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0Division and its allies in the Joint Force, including former rebel movements that had signed the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement (JPA). Many were veterans of various non-Arab Darfur militias who made common cause with the former SAF enemy and the ruling Transitional Sovereignty Council (TSC) to defeat the RSF, which succeeded the notorious Arab-supremacist\u00a0Janjaweed. These militias include elements of two large majority-Zaghawa groups: the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim; and the Sudanese Liberation Army\u2013Minni Minawi (SLA-MM), led by Darfur governor Minni Arko Minawi (see<a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/unlikely-rebel-profile-darfurs-zaghawa-rebel-leader-minni-minawi\/\">\u00a0Militant Leadership Monitor<\/a>, December 7, 2017). Smaller groups include the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces (GSLF) under Brigadier General Mubarak Bakhit and the Sudanese Liberation Movement\u2013Tambour (SLM-Tambour) led by Mustafa Nasr al-Din Tambour, governor of central Darfur and target of repeated RSF assassination attempts.<\/p>\n<p>Conflict between the western Arabs of the RSF and previously neutral JPA signatories began on April 13, 2024, after months of tensions between the armed groups, the final straw being a massive cattle raid by Zaghawa gunmen (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/scm12\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, April 19, 2024). JEM, the SLA-MM, and part of the GSLF joined the SAF coalition just as the RSF began their siege of al-Fashir.<\/p>\n<p>The RSF weakened resistance in al-Fashir with a siege that gradually starved the city\u2019s 260,000 residents and the 6<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0Division garrison. Artillery and drones assaulted the city daily, and a roughly 45-mile sand berm was constructed to prevent escape except through narrow corridors where RSF personnel subjected those in flight to murder, robbery, and rape (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dabangasudan.org\/en\/all-news\/article\/el-fasher-seige-will-airdops-shift-the-balance-of-power-in-north-darfur\">Radio Dabanga<\/a>, September 30, 2025). The city\u2019s non-Arab residents were well aware of the atrocities that befell the Masalit ethnic group after the RSF seized the West Darfur city of Geneina in June 2023 (<a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/there-will-be-no-dar-masalit-only-dar-arab-sudans-ethnic-divisions-destroy-west-darfur\/\">Terrorism Monitor<\/a>, June 26, 2023). The RSF targeted the overcrowded refugee camps around al-Fashir, and the main place of refuge became the town of Tawila, 43 miles away and controlled by the Fur militia, SLA-\u2018Abd al-Wahid (SLA-AW).<\/p>\n<p>Only days before the fall of the city, Darfur governor Minni Minawi claimed the RSF was using South Sudanese mercenaries in its assaults, having \u201cexhausted its fighters\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/sudantribune.com\/article\/306339\">Sudan Tribune<\/a>, October 23, 2025). Colombian mercenaries supported by the UAE are also believed to have taken part in the RSF siege, operating drones and heavy weapons (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/thesentry\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, October 10, 2025). By October 21, only a third of al-Fashir\u2019s 600,000 people remained, trapped in a city without food or medical supplies and where most water sources had been destroyed by shelling (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/bulletin6\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, October 21, 2025).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-5362\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"473\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map.jpg 1474w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map-276x300.jpg 276w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map-943x1024.jpg 943w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map-768x834.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-Map-1415x1536.jpg 1415w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 473px) 100vw, 473px\" \/><\/a><strong>The RSF Enters al-Fashir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On October 25, the RSF launched attacks from several directions on the SAF\u2019s 6<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0Division headquarters. Tanks and drones drove off the initial attacks. The RSF resumed the assaults the next morning at dawn, however, with drones and ground units forcing their way through the base\u2019s main gate. The RSF seized large quantities of military supplies and reported destroying \u201chuge military vehicles\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.radiotamazuj.org\/en\/news\/article\/rsf-claims-capture-of-el-fasher-north-darfur\">Radio Tamazuj<\/a>, October 26, 2025). Thousands of SAF troops and their allies withdrew to a strong-point at Daraja, northwest of al-Fashir, leaving behind many comrades taken prisoner or trapped inside the city by RSF fighters (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/el-fasher-34\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, October 26, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>Later on October 26, the RSF announced that its forces had \u201cbroken the backbone of the army and allied armed movements, inflicting heavy casualties on them, destroying massive military vehicles, and seizing all military equipment\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/el-fasher-34\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, October 26, 2025). A video of RSF fighters celebrating the capture of the 6<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0Division\u2019s base in al-Fashir was posted to social media (<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SudanTribune_EN\/status\/1982383434946191496\">X\/@SudanTribune_EN<\/a>, October 26, 2025). According to SAF commander General \u2018Abd al-Fatah al-Burhan, the military command in al-Fashir \u201cdecided to withdraw due to the systematic destruction and killing of civilians\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dabangasudan.org\/en\/all-news\/article\/north-darfur-capital-falls-to-rsf-as-un-warns-of-atrocities-and-mass-displacement\">Radio Dabanga<\/a>, October 28, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>Prior to the final assault on al-Fashir, \u2018Abd al-Rahim Daglo, Hemetti\u2019s brother and second-in-command, was filmed telling RSF fighters: \u201cI declare it here \u2026 I don\u2019t need any prisoners at all\u201d (<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Sudan_tweet\/status\/1983980196735938754?t=0rIRvao-91QDS0GLwjOS1A&amp;s=19\">X\/@Sudan_tweet<\/a>, October 30, 2025). The entry of the RSF was marked by looting, arson, gang-rapes, the targeting of non-Arab ethnic groups for slaughter, and the summary execution of prisoners and those suspected of supporting the SAF and its affiliates (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.radiotamazuj.org\/en\/news\/article\/un-more-details-emerge-of-rsf-atrocities-in-el-fasher\">Radio Tamazuj<\/a>, November 1, 2025).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5363\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/TM-\u2013-Fall-of-Fashir-\u2013-Abu-Lulu-500x281.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a> <em><strong>Fatah \u2018Abd Allah Idris \u201cAbu Lulu\u201d<\/strong> <\/em>(Ayin Network)<\/p>\n<p>In the most appalling incident, incoming RSF fighters killed 460 patients, healthcare workers, and families at al-Saudi maternity hospital (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.radiotamazuj.org\/en\/news\/article\/sudan-el-fasher-maternity-hospital-attack-kills-over-460-un-says\">Radio Tamazuj<\/a>, October 29, 2025). Fighting continued in the western part of the city even after the RSF began house-to-house \u201ccombing operations\u201d throughout the rest of al-Fashir. Besides the Saudi maternity hospital, gunmen targeted aid workers and anyone found in the university or Interior Ministry buildings. In addition, an ordinary soldier in the RSF, Fatah \u2018Abd Allah Idris \u201cAbu Lulu\u201d discovered a murderous calling during the occupation, joyfully slaughtering civilians attempting to leave the city even as they begged for their lives. After social media videos of his activities attracted international attention, the RSF claimed to have arrested him and denied he was a formal member of the group (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/abululu\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, November 10, 2025).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Hemetti\u2019s Response<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hemetti deflected international condemnation of the atrocities, insisting that they were the work of individuals who would be investigated by an RSF committee and held responsible (<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/abululu\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, November 10, 2025). The atrocities captured the attention of the International Criminal Court (ICC), however, which is monitoring for evidence of war crimes (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dabangasudan.org\/en\/all-news\/article\/icc-gathering-evidence-of-latest-atrocities-in-north-darfur\">Radio Dabanga<\/a>, November 3, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>Sixth Division and Joint Force survivors, meanwhile, have attempted to regroup in the Wana Mountains (or Hills), northwest of al-Fashir. Without provisions, they will be forced to either regain territory formerly held by the SAF, surrender to the RSF, or attempt an escape to an uncertain welcome in Chad.<\/p>\n<p>The storming of al-Fashir has been accompanied by simultaneous sieges of cities in neighboring Kordofan, part of the RSF\u2019s strategy to form a western Sudanese state. The strategic city of Bara in North Kordofan fell to three waves of RSF attackers on October 25, followed by the now-typical door-to-door slaughter of its non-Arab civilian population and all those considered sympathetic to the SAF. The operation helps the RSF complete its encirclement of the North Kordofan capital, al-\u2018Ubayd (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.madamasr.com\/en\/2025\/10\/27\/news\/u\/sudan-nashra-fasher-falls-to-rsf-amid-military-silence-rsf-retakes-bara-continues-to-bomb-khartoum-blue-nile-sennar-sudanese-govt-rsf-quad-hold-indirect-talks-on-end-to-war-in-dc-russia-su\/\">Mada Masr<\/a>, October 27;<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/bara-\/\">\u00a0Ayin Network<\/a>, November 7, 2025).<\/p>\n<p>In neighboring South Kordofan, the RSF has intensified its sieges of the cities of Kadugli and Dilling with the targeting of civilian homes by drones. The largely Nuba troops of the Sudanese People\u2019s Liberation Army-North (SPLA-N), led by \u2018Abd al-Aziz al-Hilu, have joined the RSF in these sieges (see<a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/a-profile-of-sudanese-rebel-leader-abd-al-aziz-al-hilu-continuing-the-civil-war-in-the-nuba-mountains\/\">\u00a0Militant Leadership Monitor<\/a>, July 31, 2011). The capture of Kadugli, in particular, would aid the RSF effort to consolidate its control of western Sudan<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>(<a href=\"https:\/\/3ayin.com\/en\/kordofan-13\/\">Ayin Network<\/a>, November 6, 2025).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The SAF is struggling to hold parts of Kordofan that it still controls and, at present, cannot muster the strength to push back the RSF, making a division of the country possible. For now, however, the SAF is still seeking a military rather than a diplomatic solution. Pressure to retake western Sudan coming from Darfur-origin Joint Forces allies who are now stranded in central and eastern Sudan will play an important part in the SAF\u2019s near-term operational decisions.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew McGregor Terrorism Monitor 24(1) Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC January 15, 2026 Executive Summary: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured al-Fashir in late October after an 18-month siege, consolidating RSF control over western Sudan and providing a potential capital for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/?p=5358\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,13],"tags":[439,502,227,440],"class_list":["post-5358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-darfur","category-sudan","tag-al-burhan","tag-hamdan-daglo-hemetti","tag-rsf","tag-saf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5358"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5364,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5358\/revisions\/5364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aberfoylesecurity.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}