Syria’s Army of the Muhajirin Pledges Allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

Andrew McGregor

December 12, 2013

On December 2, the Islamist Army of Muhajirin and Ansar in Bilad al-Sham issued a statement announcing it had declared its baya’a (oath of allegiance) to the Amir al-Muminin (commander of the faithful) Abu Bakr al-Husseini al-Qurayshi al-Baghdadi, leader of the al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). [1] According to the document, the decision to come under ISIS command came after the Muhajirin (“emigrants”) and ISIS had conducted a number of joint operations. The statement was signed by the “former Amir of the Army of the Muhajirin and Ansar, Omar al-Shishani” and the “former Shari’a judge of the Amir of the Muhajirin and Ansar, Abu Jafar al-Hattab.”

Omar al-Shishani

The Muhajirin are dominated by fighters from the Northern Caucasus, led by Abu Omar, an ethnic-Chechen from Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge who has established a reputation for honesty as well as fighting skills due to his rejection of abuses by foreign fighters against Syrian civilians (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, August 9).  Besides Chechens (estimated to form at least half of the Muhajirin), the group includes a reported large number of Daghestanis and ethnic Tatars and Bashkirs from the Middle Volga region (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, September 25). Those components of the Ansar al-Muhajirin listed as giving their approval of the baya’a include the Arab mujahideen, the Turkish mujahideen, the mujahideen from the Caucasus, the European mujahideen, the heavy arms detachment, the commando detachment and the administrative council.

Muhajirin in Training

The statement appeared to be an elaboration of an earlier and much shorter announcement issued on November 21 in which the Muhajirin Brigade swore allegiance to the leader of ISIS, except for “those brothers from the Caucasus Emirate who had already sworn their oath to Emirate leader Dokku Umarov. The announcement provided few other details besides citing several hadith supporting the idea that only members of the Quraysh tribe (as al-Baghdadi is alleged to be) are suitable for ruling the Caliphate (a notion disputed by many Islamic scholars who claim the hadiths refer only to conditions in the first era of Islam). [2]

According to the group’s media officer, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, the group believes that:

Secularism with its different banners and various schools like nationalism, communism and Ba’athism is an obvious kufr [disbelief] that contradicts Islam… The kufr of apostasy is greater by unanimity from the original kufr, and that is why fighting the apostates has more priority to us [than] fighting the original kufr… so our jihad is with the sword and spear and with argument and clarification, and who called for another religion than Islam or slandered the religion or fought us, then he is a combatant to us. [3]

Abu Hamza also referred to the apocalyptic predictions of Islamic eschatology that are set in al-Shams (the land of the Levant, including Syria) involving the arrival of the Mahdi (the expected one), the return of the Nabi Issa (Prophet Jesus) and their battle on the day of resurrection with al-Dajjal (“the false Messiah,” roughly in the role of the Anti-Christ of Christian eschatology):

Jihad will continue to the Day of Judgment. The development of events on the land of Sham will bring what no one expected because the land of Sham is guaranteed by Allah Almighty and the angels are spreading their wings over al-Sham. This is not Afghanistan or Bosnia or Chechnya, this is the land of al-Sham, Issa, peace be upon him, will come down here, and al-Dajjal will come out here, it is the land of epics and the land of resurrection… [4]

The Muhajirin recently completed Operation Fatih in the southwestern part of Aleppo governorate, claiming to have seized seven apartment towers and two villages as well as T-72 tanks and an anti-aircraft gun. The group claims their victory brings them closer to the road connecting Aleppo with the south. [5]

Notes

1. “Statement of the Baya’a of the Army of Muhajirin and Ansar to the ISIS,” December 2, 2013,http://www.ansar1.info/showthread.php?t=47411.

2. “Umar al-Shisani Swears an Oath to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi,” November 21, 2013, http://fisyria.com/?p=1586. 

3. Islamic News Agency Haq: |Muhajirin Battalion in a comprehensive interview:  “Our goal is to liberate Syria from the Assad regime and establish the Islamic state,” April 14, 2013,http://www.ansar1.info/showthread.php?t=45493

4. Ibid

5. “Operation Fatih,” http://fisyria.com/?p=1630

This article first appeared in the December 12, 2013 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

THE CRIME-TERROR CONTINUUM: THE CASE OF AFRICA

Part One

Judith Van Der Merwe, January 2, 2014

ABSTRACT

It is well recognized  that the bane of organized crime and terrorism have materialized as one of the foremost challenges which threaten peace, security, the development of democracy, human rights and the financially viable progress of countries across the globe. This dissertation examined the nexus/relationship that exists among transnational organized crime syndicates and terrorist groups, particularly in Africa.  This particular exploration was initiated from the hypothesis that there is substantiation sustaining the premise that terrorist groups and transnational organized crime syndicates function in a symbiotic correlation that is advantageous to both antagonists. Additionally, questions were posed as to which degree terrorist groups are predisposed by financial gains to continue or even expand their association with organized crime groups, what is the principal rationale for terrorist groups to become involved in crime, how does the connection with international crime groups influence the capability of terrorist groups to continue their operations, and what is the repercussions of said relationship for security, peace, democracy, human rights, economic development, good governance, building state capacity, maintaining the rule of law and inter-state relations? In conclusion, potential counter-measures and recommendations were briefly highlighted so as to indicate how the nexus amongst terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates can mostly effectively be limited or perhaps fully eradicated.

KEYWORDS:  terrorism, organized crime, crime syndicates, transnational crime, nexus, counter-measures, drug smuggling.

INTRODUCTION

Terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates should no longer be seen in the 21st century as two dissimilar and isolated entities. In the early 1990’s law enforcement agencies noted an escalating level of cooperation between terrorist groups and organized crime networks. Both criminal organizations and terrorist groups all over the globe are increasingly cooperating for the mutual benefit of each antagonist. Whereas, initially terrorist groups were motivated by ideological, political, religious or ethnic objectives, and organized crime syndicates were induced by, for the most part, economic/financial and territorial aspirations, the situation has changed significantly since the 21st century into a situation where most terrorist groups are now involved in some or other form of criminal activity, and organized crime syndicates are increasingly becoming involved in political violence. This growing symbiosis between the two groups have made both more influential, in that terrorist groups have been able to expand their area of operations, augment their financial resources, acquired sophisticated weaponry/equipment, enhanced their intelligence/technological capacities, and organized crime groups, on the other hand, have started to utilize terror tactics such as assassinations, political violence and bombings to terrorize society and governments.

Definitions of Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime

In order to clarify the term of terrorism, it should be taken into account that numerous definitions for terrorism exist.  Therefore, for the purpose of this paper, the definition as per the Africa Union Convention on the Prevention and Combating on Terrorism (1999) shall be applied.  The aforementioned Convention defines terrorism as:

Acts which violate the criminal laws of a State Party and which may endanger the life, physical integrity or freedom of, or cause serious injury or death to, any person, any number of group of persons or cause damage to public or private property, natural resources, environmental or cultural heritage and are calculated or intended to intimidate, put in fear, force, coerce or induce any government body, institution, the general public or any segment thereof, to do or abstain from doing any act, or to adapt or abandon a particular standpoint, or to act according to certain principles, or disrupt any public service, the delivery of essential service to the public or to create a public emergency; or create general insurrection in a State.

Organized crime refers to crimes committed by national and international criminal organizations, and according to Article 3 (2) of the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, a transnational criminal offense is regarded as such if the following conditions are associated with it:

  •    It is committed in more than one State,
  •   It is committed in  one State but a substantial part of its preparation, planning, direction or control takes place in another State,
  •   It is committed in one State, but involves an organized criminal group that engages in criminal activities in more than one State; or
  •   It is committed in one State but has substantial effects in another State

Relationship between terrorist groups and transnational crime syndicates

However, the link between terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates is not a new phenomenon. As early as the 1980’s, terrorist groups in Latin America turned to drug smuggling to subsidize their activities.  The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC) grew substantially, in terms of its terror capacity and financial influence, when it began to traffic cocaine.  Since then, the FARC has diversified its primary cocaine trade from the United States to Europe by the way of West Africa.  In 1985, the Medellin drug cartel in Columbia joined forces with the 19th of April Movement (M19) terrorist group to help them in bomb-making techniques, which the Medellin group later used to murder judges, policemen, drug enforcement agents and border police members.1   However, most analysts agree that the 1990’s was the time-period in which the nexus between organized crime syndicates and terrorist groups was consolidated.2   Where, beforehand, terrorist groups were perceived as having political, ideological, religious and ethnic goals, today most terrorist groups are engaged in organized crime for financial gain, and some criminal syndicates are engaged in political violence through their inter-relationship with terrorist groups.

Since the 1990’s some transnational organized crime groups have become smaller, more loosely organized entities that have become more ideologically radicalized and now actively pursue business in the interest of politics as well as to support the goals of terrorist groups if it is to the benefit of the former.3.  In this relationship both groups are involved in drug smuggling, human trafficking, money laundering, cigarette smuggling, smuggling in narcotics and psychotropic substances, the sale of expired food products, the manufacture and sale of counterfeit medicines, manufacturing and sale of intellectual property, fraud, contraband smuggling, illicit trade in small arms and light weapons (SALW), advance fee fraud/419, stolen vehicles, corruption, forced labor, corruption, trafficking of wildlife products, trade in rare metals, diamonds, gold, precious stones, extortion, identity theft, cybercrime, counterfeit computer software, music piracy, forged documents, counterfeit currency, sea piracy, oil bunkering and kidnap for ransom.

The symbiosis between organized crime syndicates and terrorist groups are making both groups more powerful and more capable.  Terrorist groups are benefitting from the revenue of criminal activities to perpetuate their terror activities and expand their theatre of operations, whilst organized crime syndicates are using the established smuggling routes of terrorist groups to expand their illicit markets, to increase their profit and to use the tactics of terrorist groups to gain political power.  Terrorist groups have  become more willing to partner up with organized crime, including the sharing of smuggling routes, profits, corruptive influence, operational and organizational modus operandi and sharing of expertise.  This symbiotic relationship is challenging the locale of global and national security by weakening democracy, abating state institutions, damaging the credibility of financial institutions, being harmful to the social fabric of society, and infiltrating the formal economy.

The closer collaboration amid terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates in the 21st century was for the most part brought on by four major developments:

  • Globalization, which brought about free trade flow across international borders, a vast reduction of trade barriers between countries and an augmentation in global travel;
  • The communication revolution, through the wider use of the internet – both organized crime syndicates and terrorist groups are progressively using the internet and cyberspace for recruitment, planning, propaganda, logistics, funding, video/music piracy, credit card/banking fraud, identity theft, the sale of illegal drugs, extortion, sharing of intelligence, creation of fraudulent documents, conception of new markets for their illegal activities, and money laundering.  It has also brought closer cooperation due to expanded  access to cyberspace for business, and the spreading out of the global financial systems,  which enables both terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates to expand their criminal/terror activities.  Through their close collaboration with organized crime syndicates, terrorist groups have augmented their competence to exploit the internet and cyberspace.  The knowledge terrorist groups have gained from organized crime groups in this area has enabled the former to activate encryption devices and to use software tools to locate open ports and overcome password tools to steal identities, commit credit card fraud, launder money and extort banking/business institutions for millions of dollars;
  • The end of the Cold War and the diminishing of funds from the Persian Gulf, charities and other non-governmental fronts have compelled terrorist groups to adapt and further diversify their funding sources. Due to the fact that terrorist groups need funding for recruitment, monthly stipends, accommodation, food, fuel, weapons, training, administrative expenses, medical costs, payments to the families of deceased members, travel, communication/surveillance equipment, the maintenance of internet sites, explosives/bomb-making material, these groups found a ready partner in organized crime groups to maintain their terror war.4.  Furthermore, by building an affiliation with organized crime, terrorist groups now have access to specialist skills such as the forging of travel documents, new bomb-making techniques, access to expertise in the illegal transfer and laundering of money.  Consequently, “traditional” criminal activities like drug smuggling, robbery, piracy, forgery, counterfeiting, arms trafficking, human trafficking, kidnapping for ransom, fraud, extortion, traffic in precious stones, rare metals, smuggling of wildlife products, money laundering, and other forms of violent crime, rapidly became the main source of terrorism funding;
  • The intensified “War on Terror” after 9/11 led to increased global cooperation on counter terrorism which led to a further decline in state-sponsored terrorism.5

Effect of Organised Crime on Africa

As in the rest of the international community, organized crime has had a detrimental effect on Africa in terms of economic development, building of state institutions, democratization and and security. Since the 20th century, organized crime has become a multi-billion dollar industry with an intrinsic disadvantageous consequence in all the countries in which it has established itself.

Moreover, in 2009, the World Bank’s World development Report estimated the value of revenue accruing to organized crime to be in the region of $1.3 trillion.6   The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) global figures suggest that Africa was in some way linked to 7-10 per cent of illicit trade.7 

Thus, while African trade accounts for only 3 per cent of global trade in goods and services and only 2.4 per cent of global GDP in the licit economy, if we look at the same scale of illicit flows it becomes clear that while Africa has benefitted disproportionately from legitimate growth, the same is also true of illicit economic activity8.  In the same vein, it can be assumed that the impact organized crime has had on stability and economic development in Africa has been profound.  Some examples clearly illustrate this point:

  •  West Africa has emerged as a major transit and repackaging hub for cocaine flowing from Latin American cocaine-producing areas to European markets.  About 13 per cent of cocaine trafficked to Europe is transited via Guinea-Bissau,9 which amounts to at least 25 tons per year with a minimum market value of $4.29billion.10  Large seizures of illicit drugs were made in and along the coast of Ghana, Sierra Leone, Cape Verde, Togo, Liberia, Benin, Senegal and Nigeria, proving that these countries are correspondingly being used as transit routes for drug trafficking.  It is estimated that up to 30 tons of heroin from Afghanistan is trafficked into East Africa by drug smuggling cartels.  The heroin reaches East Africa primarily through Somalia. The drug is then smuggled by the terrorist group al-Shabaab via local crime syndicates to Mombasa (Kenya) and South Africa, from where it is smuggled to the lucrative end-user market in Europe.
  •  Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon are ranked among the top countries in the world where cybercrime is most prevalent, contributing to a global flow of $600 million per year.11
  •  Somali piracy cost the global economy financial losses of between $6.6-6.9 billion in 2011.12
  • A recent report by the United States State Department on money laundering claims that Kenya’s financial system may be laundering more than $100 million per year.13
  • Illicit trafficking in ivory, diamonds, gold, tin, tantalum, cobalt, coltan (a very important and rare mineral used as a semi-conductor in the growing mobile and computer technology industry) and natural resources out of Central Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), is facilitating sustained insecurity caused by armed groups and is contributing to illicit flows estimated at over $1.2 billion per year.14 Armed groups, particularly in the eastern and northern DRC, still play a significant role in perpetuating instability and violence in order to protect vested interests in mineral and other resources.  It is estimated there are still between 6500 -13,000 active members of armed groups who are benefiting from criminal activity and their relationship with organized crime groups.15
  • In Somalia, al-Shabaab was enabled by the illegal export of charcoal from Kismaayo port to organized crime groups to continue their armed conflict against the Transitional Federal Government in Somalia and the Africa Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).  Since its expulsion from Kismaayo in 2012, Al Shabaab has found alternative means of finance by importing drugs (heroin from Afghanistan, amphetamines, mandrax and ecstasy from India, Pakistan and South-East Asia) through smaller ports in Somalia (including the Puntland port of Bosaso) and smuggling the drugs into Kenya, from which point they are smuggled by local crime groups to markets in South Africa and Europe.
  • Illicit trade in gold, copper, diamonds, tanzanite, timber, ivory and rhino horn between organized crime syndicates and armed groups/terrorist groups/armed militia eventually spread east and southwards towards Kenya, Tanzania, Cameroon, Zimbabwe, Angola, Uganda and South Africa.  The Sahel countries of Mali, Mauritania and Niger are showing increasingly volatility and insecurity, caused by increased drug trafficking from the south and instability to the north, most notably in Libya, resulting in a dangerous intersection of crime, terrorism and insurgency.16  There is evidence that AQIM has links with Latin American drug cartels, where the former provide protection for cocaine shipments through the Sahel en route to Europe.  The same can be said of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), where this group has accepted in-kind cocaine payment from Latin American drug traffickers.  The new relationship between these groups has afforded the drug cartels new smuggling routes for their product through territory controlled by terrorist groups, and for the terrorist groups the working relationship with organized crime syndicates provides them with funds to expand their operational/technical capabilities, acquire sophisticated equipment/weaponry and spread their violent activities beyond their traditional areas of operation.17

In fact, when other illicit flows of capital due to a variety of forms of smuggling, trade in contraband, violations of intellectual property rights, human trafficking, the sex trade, and other illegal activities is included, a report by Global Financial Integrity estimates that cross-border flow of money from Africa increases considerably from $854 billion to about $1.8 trillion over the last four decades,18 with earnings generated through drug trafficking, racketeering and counterfeiting adding about 30-35 per cent to the total, and the proceeds of bribery, theft and corruption by government officials a further 3 percent.19

Drug Trafficking in Africa

Primarily due to decreased demand for cocaine in the United States and improved drug enforcement strategies in that country, drug smuggling cartels in Latin America switched their attention in the 1990’s to the burgeoning cocaine market in Europe.  Realizing that a direct smuggling route from Latin America to Europe was a high risk (due to enhanced drug enforcement capacities in the European Union and the United Kingdom), the drug smuggling syndicates saw Africa as a low risk/high yield smuggling route.  Consequently, the drug cartels developed business relationships with terrorist groups and local organized crime groups in Africa to smuggle cocaine through the continent onto the European markets.

The lack of equipment, shortage of trained drug enforcement officials, poor inter-agency cooperation, insufficient donor coordination, restricted budgets, poverty, large ungoverned land mass and inability to effectively patrol territorial waters made coastal states in West Africa particularly vulnerable to drug traffickers. In the Sahel and North Africa, the cooperation between the drug smuggling cartels and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has benefitted both parties.  Through their collaboration with cocaine and heroin drug smuggling cartels, AQIM has significantly enriched itself, enabling the organization to continue its terror campaign.  It is partly due to the increase in revenue that AQIM has been able to acquire sophisticated weapons from arsenals in Libya, which has exponentially led to greater instability in the region.

It can clearly be established that the drug trafficking cartels of Latin America (particularly those situated in Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela), as well as the drug smuggling syndicates in Afghanistan, Pakistan and south-East Asia, are increasingly using Africa as a transit point for cocaine, heroin, ecstasy, and amphetamines to Europe and southern Africa. Most cocaine powder, cocaine hydrochloride, is manufactured in Bolivia, Columbia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile, and is then trans-shipped by maritime and air routes to West Africa, where cocaine powder is refined into cocaine hydrochloride, repackaged in Mauritania, Mali, Niger and then smuggled by terrorist groups and local crime groups through the Sahel to the large ports of the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Germany, France, Italy and the UK.  Multi-ton shipments of illicit drugs travel by sea and air to Africa, mainly passing through countries along the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel and Sahara regions. There are vast unpatrolled areas along the coast of West Africa and in the Sahel where the ships dock and the airplanes land to offload cargo.  Both organized crime syndicates and terrorist groups in Africa and Latin America share a part of the estimated billion dollar cocaine industry, while terrorist groups in Africa and the South –East Asian drug cartels share in the $30 billion global heroin market.20

In addition, hashish trafficking from Morocco is estimated at $12.5 billion.  Hashish was the major source of funding for three major terrorist attacks:  the aborted attack on a US Navy vessel in Gibraltar in 2002, the bombing of several sites in Casablanca in May 2003 and the March 2004attack in Madrid.21

22

In the map above, it can be seen that Africa (specifically West Africa, the Sahel, East and Southern Africa), is used as a major transit route for Cocaine originating in Latin America (green arrows) and Opiates from Afghanistan (red arrows).

23

Most of the illegal drugs from Latin America are transshipped by cargo/container ship and airplanes (Gulfstream jets and Boeing 727s) to West Africa (Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Togo, Benin, Ghana, the Casamance region of Senegal, the Bisagos Archipelago (south-west of Guinea-Bissau with its 88 sparsely populated islands), South Africa and the Sahel, from where terrorist groups, particularly AQIM and MUJAO,  and local crime groups (when the drugs are shipped via South Africa) smuggle it across land and by commercial or private air to Europe. A portion of the cocaine smuggled along this route in Africa also gets smuggled to Europe via air routes by using the airports of Cameroon, Senegal, Benin and Ghana. In most cases, local crime syndicates use so-called “drug mules,” individuals who are paid a fee to transport the drugs in their luggage, on their person or by swallowing small bags of cocaine. With the organized crime syndicates being intimately involved in human trafficking, these individuals may also be used to smuggle illegal drugs within their bodies.

NOTES

         1,  David O’Regan, “Cocaine and Instability in Africa: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean,” Africa Security Brief Volume 5, July 2010.

      2. Lee Shelley & J. Picarelli, “Methods and Motives: Exploring links between transnational organized crime and terrorism” Global Crime 6(1), February 2004.

           3.  J. Rollins & l. Sun-Wyler, “International terrorism and transnational crime: security threats and US policy and considerations for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, Washington, March 2010,  p.5.

         4. Charles Goredema, “Organised crime and terrorism: Observations from South Africa,” ISS Paper, no.101, March 2005, p.4.

         5. Christina Schori Liang, “Shadow Networks: The growing nexus of terrorism and organized crime,” GCSP Policy Paper, no.20, September 2011, p.2.

      6. World Bank, World development report 2009: reshaping economic geography, Washington, DC, 2009.

        7. Ibid, p. 11.

           8. UNODC (UN Office on Drugs and Crime), “The transatlantic cocaine market: a research paper, Vienna, April 2011, p.2.

            9. UNODC, World Drug Report 2010, Vienna, p.242.

      10. UNODC, The globalization of crime, 2010, Vienna, p.11.

            11.  Oceans beyond piracy, The economic costs of piracy 2011, One Earth Foundation, http://oceansbeyondpiracy.org/sites/default/files/economic_cost_of_piracy_2011.pdf.

     12. Peter Gastrow, “Termites at work: transnational organized crime and state erosion in Kenya”, International Peace Institute, New York, September 2011, p.7.

      13. UNODC, World Drug Report 2010, Vienna, p.242.

          14.  Mark Shaw & Tuesday Reitano, “The evolution of organized crime in Africa: towards a new response”, Institute for Security Studies, Paper 244, April 2013, p.7.

     15. Geoffrey York, “Coup in Guinea-Bissau shines light on powerful West African drug trade”, The Globe and Mail, 13 April 2012.

     16. Global Financial Index (GFI), “Illicit financial flows from Africa”, p.11.

          17.  ACSRT/CAERT (African Union), “Threat of Terrorism and Linkages to Transnational Organized Crime. 2010. p. 6.

      18. Foreign Policy, “We have no idea if Africa is rising”, 28 January 2013, http//www.foreign policy.com/articles/2013/01/28/we_have-no_idea_if_africa_is_rising.

         19. Global Financial Index (GFI), “Illicit financial flows from Africa”, p.11.

     20. Christina Schori Liang, “Shadow networks: the growing nexus between terrorism and organized crime”, GCSP Policy Paper, No. 20, September 2011, p.2.

          21. Ibid, p.2.

      22. Drug Enforcement Joint Task Force (DEA) 2011, p.17.

      23. http://www.worldreview.info/content/…saving– south- American- drug-barons.

 Judith Van der Merwe  Is a Specialist (Alert and Prevention) at the Africa Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism in Algiers, Algeria.  Her field of study encompasses the Horn of Africa (Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea), East Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda) and southern Africa (Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Madagascar).  She is primarily involved in analyzing terrorist incidents/terrorist trends in the regions mentioned.  Additionally she is also involved in research on the impact of organized crime in the region.

 The preceding article is a guest contribution to the Aberfoyle International Security website and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Aberfoyle International Security.

D

 

THE CRIME-TERROR CONTINUUM: THE CASE OF AFRICA

Part Two

Judith Van Der Merwe, January 2, 2014

1. www.STATT.net/2013.

Horn of Africa: Terrorism and Organised Crime

Apart from West Africa and the Sahel, the Horn of Africa is also increasingly used as transshipment route for heroin from Afghanistan. The terrorist group al-Shabaab is involved in smuggling the heroin to ports in East Africa from where it is smuggled to Europe.  Al-Shabaab resells the heroin to organized crime gangs in Nigeria who smuggle it to Europe.  This has enabled al-Shabaab to augment their monetary capabilities, which in turn permit the group to get hold of sophisticated weapons, communications equipment, achieve influence in local communities, get new recruits and expand their terror campaign beyond the borders of Somalia.

Using their links with al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), al-Shabaab is regularly provided with weapons, ammunition, medicine, communication equipment, grenades, surveillance equipment, mortar bombs, explosives, and other bomb-making components. In turn, al-Shabaab has identified the opportunity to establish collaboration with local crime networks in Kenya and south Sudan.  In this alliance with crime networks, the terrorist group has smuggled weapons, ammunition, hand grenades and explosives into Kenya.  In return the local crime networks use the weapons and explosives they buy from al-Shabaab to commit crimes against the government of Kenya and civilians. Correspondingly, al-Shabaab frequently sells weapons and explosives to local crime factions in South Sudan.  The finance accrued in this manner by al-Shabaab is then utilized to expand the capacities of the terror group, to recruit new members from largely impoverished communities, to infiltrate operatives into countries beyond Somalia, to gain influence among local tribal leaders and to sustain their armed conflict against AMISOM and the national armed forces of Somalia.

AL QAEDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGREB (AQIM) /CRIMINAL NEXUS IN THE SAHEL

As with other terrorist groups in Africa, AQIM has had to look for alternate sources of funding since the 1990’s. A restrictive counterterrorism environment enforced in Algeria since 2009, paired with a limited ability to establish operational cells in the Maghreb or to conduct attacks in Western Europe, has forced AQIM to shift its focus towards the Sahel region and rely heavily on criminal activities such as drug smuggling.  Originally, the relationship between AQIM and organized drug smuggling cartels started out with AQIM offering protection to the cartels against the payment of right-of-passage taxes along the long-established smuggling routes in the vast, lightly-occupied Sahel region. Since the 1990’s cocaine trafficking has become a significant source of funding for AQIM, enabling the group to expand their operational capabilities and continue to perpetrate violence against governments in the region. The discovery of the wreckage of a Boeing 727 allegedly containing up to 10 tons of cocaine in northeastern Mali in late 2009 further suggested ties between AQIM and Latin American drug trafficking cartels. 2

3.

The continued cooperation between AQIM and the drug smuggling cartels in Latin America has enabled AQIM to evolve into an even greater security threat in an area which is potentially strategically important to the global economy for the reason that large deposits of uranium, oil, and gas can be found in the Sahel.  The enhanced financial capacities of AQIM can enable the terrorist group to further undermine already fragile states that face widespread discontent, restive nomadic populations, extreme poverty and an influx of jihadist ideology.4

Nevertheless, the correlation between AQIM and drug trafficking syndicates rapidly expanded into supplementary forms of criminal activity, such as the smuggling of weapons, cigarettes, humans and vehicles.  AQIM cells, particularly the Belmokthar katibah (brigade), are actively involved in weapons and stolen vehicle smuggling.5 AQIM is additionally involved (either directly or through “taxation”) in the smuggling of tobacco and other commodities across the Sahara to Europe.  AQIM smuggling cells are assisted with geographical assistance and protection by some communities in the Sahel and Sahara.

The conflict in Libya has made the region even more dangerous with a growth in available weapons and material – some of which have been sold in exchange for a variety of contraband items including drugs. There are indications that AQIM, through its links with the cocaine smuggling cartels, has transferred weapons from the arsenals of Libya to some of the drug cartels in Latin America.

It is, nonetheless, in the criminal activity of Kidnap for Ransom (KFR) that AQIM accumulated the greater component of their funds since the beginning of 2000. Given the limited range of Western “soft” targets in the Sahel, KFR became the natural preference for AQIM to augment their financial resources. For the 2008-2012 periods, AQIM’s kidnappings have targeted aid workers, tourists, diplomats (Algerian diplomats), and expatriate workers in for the most part in Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Chad, and Tunisia. 6 Hostages have included a range of nationals from France, Spain, Italy, Canada, Togo, Madagascar, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.  In most cases the required ransom was paid and prisoners were released.  In fact, during the perios of 2008-2012, the practice of KFR by AQIM reportedly generated almost $50 million for the terrorist group.  It has been reported that the average ransom payment for the release of a hostage taken by AQIM between 2008 and 2009 was $6.5 million.7

Apart from the monetary advantage AQIM garners from KFR, it is furthermore a significant bargaining instrument for the terrorist group and its most efficient means of reaching Western targets in the Sahel.  Given that the restrictive counterterrorism environment in Algeria is likely to continue (particularly after the In Aménas incident), it is most probable that the threat posed by AQIM will continue in the form of the kidnapping for ransom of foreign nationals who are employed in the energy/mining sectors in the region.  Furthermore, AQIM delegated the assignment of kidnapping to local criminal groups when it spread the message in the Sahel that it was prepared to pay up to 70,000 Euros for each Western kidnapping victim sold to AQIM.  This has led to a state of affairs where local crime groups have established links with AQIM and even resulted in the emergence of a kidnapping industry in Mali.

ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGE

The impact of increased revenue flows to terrorist groups from organized crime in some regions of Africa that are already experiencing conflict and insecurity is for the most part considerable, in that it has facilitated the pursuit of violent insurgencies and jihadist extremist movements. This has in turn worsened the socio-economic tribulations of these regions (the Sahel, West Africa, the Horn of Africa), as weakened the rule of law institutions, undermined the state-building process and destabilized fragile states.  In addition, the increasing nexus between organized crime and terrorist groups in Africa is a principal cause of human insecurity, economic disparity, lost government revenues, diminished GDP (Gross Domestic Product), prevention of human development, reduction in tourism, loss of legal business revenues, illegal trade, protracted wars, overcrowded prisons, overburdened courts and rising defense/police expenditures.

As terrorist groups increasingly take on the distinctiveness of organized crime and vice versa, a multifaceted approach will be required to deal with this escalating menace.  It will necessitate a focused, feasible, result-oriented and synchronized response from all counterterrorism institutions and agencies on the continent and the international community.  National, regional, and international responses will need to incorporate more of the effective tools used by law enforcement to combat organized crime. In addition to strengthening national capacity, regional capacities must be promoted, and international partners need to assist governments in Africa in improving their operational response to this scourge.8

On the national/domestic level,  operational capacities need to be enhanced by closer cooperation with other  police and counterterrorism agencies and financial regulatory agencies,  the expansion of internal expertise through training programs and improved access to new technologies (specifically in the area of cybercrime).  Moreover, collaboration with national foreign policy and international relations agencies needs to be expanded.  Military and intelligence expertise should be enhanced through training, technical assistance programs, bolstering of special staff capabilities and the improvement of intelligence sharing operations.  The police and legal system should also train all officials in international law, human rights and the prosecution of terrorism cases.

On a regional and international level, existing cooperative agreements with foreign police, security organizations, UN agencies and AU agencies need to be strengthened.  This can include measures such as building liaison networks, personnel exchanges, foreign training programs, joint operations, intelligence sharing operations and capacity building programs. Police, prosecutors and courts need training to successfully investigate, prosecute and incarcerate transnational criminals and terrorist organizations.  Moreover, aid programs to build capacity in countries that are potential sources of organized crime and terrorism should be expanded with increased international funding and sharing of expertise. For example, programs are necessary to increase maritime awareness and the maritime security capacity of states on the coasts of West and East Africa.

The creation of national and regional fusion centers aimed at the eradication of terrorism/organized crime need to be established.9 These centers should focus on the exchange of relevant information, resource sharing and conducting joint counterterrorism/counter-crime operations.  Embedded in these fusion centers should be financial intelligence units that can monitor financial intelligence sharing among the respective States.10 Safe havens in the financial world and in cyberspace need to be addressed by strengthening the capacity of states to stop financial flows between collaborating terror and crime groups. International legislation on money laundering and counterterrorist financing needs to be harmonized as well. As a matter of urgency, African states need to enact comprehensive cyber-infrastructure legislation to prevent terrorist and organized crime groups from illegal access to the computer networks of financial institutions.

Furthermore, increased border control capacities need to be developed, given the vast, porous and inadequately monitored borders in many areas on the continent.  Border management agencies need to be assisted by international partners in enhancing their capabilities by the provision of effective communication, word/data processing and surveillance equipment.  Mobile border control units in sensitive areas need to be financed and set up to stop terrorist groups and organized crime groups from exploiting inadequately monitored borders.  Improved training for border management officials and customs officials is required and the recruitment of more officials for border management is crucial. This need can mostly be met by new bilateral and multilateral agreements on operational cooperation, information sharing and the supply of logistics and equipment.

Conditions of poverty, economic marginalization, alienation, unresolved conflicts, ethnic and religious discrimination, violation of human rights and the lack of good governance render a large percentage of the population in Africa vulnerable to exploitation by terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates.  Consequently, de-radicalization programs (specifically aimed at the youth and prisons) need to be developed.  The most effective long-term way to do this is to develop the economies of African countries so as to create job opportunities, move people away from poverty and subsequently build resilience in communities in order for them to resist the lure of terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates.11  To reach this goal there is an urgent need for the international community to assist by investing more resources in terms of crime prevention, peace-building processes, economic growth, development of local business infrastructure, increased investment in the continent, state-building, and enhancing access to the global economy.

In summation, it has been established, in this research, that a definitive relationship exists between terrorist groups and transnational crime syndicates with obvious negative effects on world peace and security. The symbiotic relationship between the two groups is growing and will continue to grow in future, due to the fact that both antagonists benefit from the relationship. Thus, for the sake of world peace, stability, societal development and global economic growth, the nexus between terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates can best be broken with significant investment of resources and increased national/international cooperation. However, failure to act consistently and for the long-term will only increase the costs in financial and human terms for all involved.  Thus every effort must be made to rid the continent of the scourge of terrorism and organized crime.

Notes

1      European Response to organized crime. STATT.net. 2013, p.2.

2      Reuters, “Al Qaeda linked to rogue aviation network”, January 13, 2010.

3      http://www.drugtraffickingroutes/maps.com.

4      James M Dorsey, “West Africa: a Drug Smuggling and Terrorism Hub?” 2010.

5      INTERPOL, “GSPC Terrorist activity in southern Algeria and on the borders of   Mali, Mauritania and Niger”, Specialized Crime and Analysis Directorate, INTERPOL General Secretariat, October 2003, p7.

6     INTERPOL, “The AQ organization in the lands of the Islamic Maghreb and its activity in the Sahel region”, Specialized Crime and Analysis Directorate, INTERPOL Analytic Report, March 2011, p.13.

7     Ibid, p.14.

8     ACSRT/CAERT (African Union), “Threat of Terrorism and Linkages to Transnational Organized Crime. 2010, p.10.

9     Ibid, p.11.

10   Ibid, p.11.

11   Ibid, p.11.

Judith Van der Merwe  Is a Specialist (Alert and Prevention) at the Africa Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism in Algiers, Algeria.  Her field of study encompasses the Horn of Africa (Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea), East Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda) and southern Africa (Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Madagascar).  She is primarily involved in analyzing terrorist incidents/terrorist trends in the regions mentioned.  Additionally she is also involved in research on the impact of organized crime in the region.

The preceding article is a guest contribution to the Aberfoyle International Security website and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Aberfoyle International Security.

 

Somalia’s al-Shabaab Movement: Tactical Overhaul in a Collapsing Insurgency

Andrew McGregor 

A Speech Delivered at the Jamestown Foundation Seventh Annual Terrorism Conference

Washington D.C.
December 12, 2013

Somalia’s al-Shabaab movement was incorporated as a new regional chapter of al-Qaeda with the blessings of Ayman al-Zawahiri in February, 2012. Faced with increasing military opposition and severe blows to its revenue streams, al-Shabaab faced the options of gradual annihilation in the field or scaling back operations to a more asymmetric model based on a diminished interest in holding territory and a greater use of terrorist tactics in an expanded zone of operations, one that includes Somalia’s neighbors and might possibly reach to the foreign supporters of Somalia’s national government and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The Westgate Mall attack in Nairobi and a series of terrorist strikes in Somalia suggest that al-Shabaab is undergoing a tactical and organizational shift designed to centralize command of the movement as it de-emphasizes guerrilla warfare in favor of suicide bombings, assassinations and other terrorist operations.

Assessing al-Shabaab’s Military Strength

Following the devastating loss of both Mogadishu and Kismayo, al-Shabaab finds itself operating in an ever more restricted space, with the only urban centers of any importance still under their control being the port of Barawe in Lower Shabelle and the town of Badhere in Gedo region. According to the Somali Minister of Defense, Abdihakim Haji Mohamud Fiki, al-Shabaab’s military strength has been heavily weakened, leading the movement to carry out a series of desperation attacks.

Al-Shabaab has faced an internal challenge as well, after movement leader Abdi Godane began a purge of internal opponents and suspected spies, centralizing command under himself in the process.Godane relies these days on a combination Praetorian Guard and secret service known as Amniyat to provide personal protection and enforce his will within the movement. Amniyat is already organized in a cell structure that would readily lend itself to a shift to purely terrorist tactics should Shabaab be driven from the field. Amniyat created a split in al-Shabaab during the fighting in Mogadishu when it began killing wounded Shabaab fighters from the southern Bay-Bakool region to save the movement the trouble of looking after them.

Amniyat’s assassination of movement notables like Ibrahim Haji Jama, Omar Hammami, Osama al-Britani (a.k.a. Habib Ghani) and Abdihamid Hashi Olhaye (Moallim Burhan) has created divisions within the movement at a critical time; in early November (Nov 10) at least ten Shabaab militants were killed in what was described as heavy fighting that occurred when one al-Shabaab faction attacked Godane loyalists in the Lower Shabelle region.

Shaykh Hassan Dahir Aweys

Elements of the Hizb al-Islam faction that merged with Shabaab in 2010 are now rethinking their commitment to jihad after the surrender of their leader Shaykh Hassan Dahir Aweys to government forces, Aweys preferring surrender rather than face assassination by Godane’s gunmen. There now appears to be a split in the remains of the original group, with one faction of Hizb al-Islam renouncing violence in favor of talks while another faction rejects any such notions.

In the face of pressure from powerful Hawiye clan elders, President Hassan Shaykh Mohamud has indicated that Aweys, a member of the Hawiye, could be released if he renounced violence and distanced himself from al-Shabaab, a step the shaykh appears unready to take yet.  Otherwise the former Hizb al-Islam leader may face a military court.

Another leading Shabaab commander, Mukhtar Robow (a.k.a. Abu Mansur), has fled Godane’s assassins to take refuge with his Rahanweyn clan. His loss is important, as his troops from the Bay-Bakool region were personally loyal to him and formed a significant part of Shabaab’s total manpower. The remaining Shabaab leaders still in the field all face the danger of being hunted by American drones running out of Ethiopia and Djibouti.

Al-Shabaab Finances

Though there are reports that al-Shabaab profits from the production end of the charcoal industry, the Kenyan military estimates that their incursion into southern Somalia has disrupted 75% of al-Shabaab’s revenue stream, mainly by ending Shabaab control of the important southern port of Kismayo. However, control of the charcoal trade from Shabaab-held Barawe is still worth millions of dollars each month.

Eliminating or even restricting Shabaab’s sources of financing will do much to diminish their military strength – as we have seen throughout this conflict, there is a certain mobility on the part of fighters when either side has demonstrated an inability to meet its payroll.

Tactical Change

While al-Shabaab may seek to impress Gulf region donors with terrorist attacks like that on the Westgate Mall, it risks at the same time the loss of diaspora donors who are morally opposed to such attacks or who are unwilling to risk prosecution for funding a group that can no longer be described by its diaspora backers as “a national resistance movement opposing foreign occupation.” Between the movement’s open declaration of allegiance to al-Qaeda and its headline-grabbing terrorist attacks, such evasions are no longer tenable.

Nonetheless, al-Shabaab is stepping up its use of suicide bombers:

  • A June attack on a UN compound in Mogadishu by a suicide bomber in a truck followed by a general assault  that killed 22 people
  • A suicide car bomb attack outside Mogadishu’s Maka al-Mukarama Hotel on November 8 killed six people. A Shabaab spokesman said the target of the attack was “apostate security forces and officials.”
  • An attack on the Beledweyne police station followed by a general assault on November 19 killed 28 people.

A UN Security Council report issued last July suggested that al-Shabaab has “preserved the core of its fighting forces and resources” by avoiding direct military confrontations. Nevertheless, if al-Shabaab are entering lean times, it will be difficult to hold the group together as many of its fighters consider the economic opportunities the movement offers to be as appealing as its ideology.

Assessing AMISOM’s Military Strength

In October, UN deputy secretary general Jan Eliasson assessed the progress of the African Union’s mission in Somalia, or AMISOM, saying that the offensive that began in August 2011 with the withdrawal of al-Shabaab from Mogadishu had “ground to a halt” because of a shortage of troops to exploit successes in the field.

In mid-November the Security Council addressed the issue, authorizing the deployment of an additional 4400 African Union troops, bringing the size of the force up to 22,100 troops. The Council also approved the use of 12 military helicopters from troop-contributing countries. After a period of 18 to 24 months, the Security Council hopes to hand over security operations to the Somali National Army and a UN peacekeeping force. However, it must be remembered that mere authorization does not translate to troops on the ground – it took three years for AMISOM to raise its forces to the previous authorized level of 18,000.  It can only be hoped that the response will be quicker at this crucial time rather than allow al-Shabaab the opportunity to regroup and reorganize.

AMISOM’s reputation has improved greatly since the Shabaab withdrawal from Mogadishu allowed the mission to begin humanitarian operations. During Shabaab’s occupation of the city, AMISOM frequently came under local criticism for its careless use of retaliatory fire when responding to Shabaab attacks. The 960 man Somali-speaking police and military contingent from Djibouti has had notable success in its deployment in the Hiraan region, but there is a limit to what that small nation can provide.

The addition of helicopter-gunships and surveillance aircraft would greatly enhance the effectiveness of AMISOM operations in territory now held by al-Shabaab. The use of Kenyan Air Force fighter jets in southern Somalia has been an important factor in driving al-Shabaab from their former bases there.

The other component of AMISOM’s mission is providing training and assistance in the creation of professional Somali security forces that can take on a greater share of responsibility for internal security.

Ethiopia is considering joining AMISOM, which would greatly enhance the operational ability of the force in squeezing Shabaab forces from the Somali interior.

Applying Pressure to the AMISOM Contributors

When al-Shabaab first proved its international capabilities in 2010 with coordinated suicide bombings that killed 74 people who had gathered to watch the World Cup in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, the movement warned:  “We are sending a message to every country that is willing to send troops to Somalia that they will face attacks on their territory.”

Having already lost vital revenues provided by the movement’s control of the markets of Mogadishu and the port of Kismayo, Kenya’s support for a new, autonomous administration in southern Somalia threatens to deprive Shabaab of operational mobility in one of its last strongholds. Unable to confront Kenyan troops in the field, al-Shabaab’s strategic response was the formulation of a devastating strike at a soft target in the heart of Kenya – Nairobi’s upscale Westgate Mall.

The Westgate Mall attack did not come out of the blue – over a dozen grenade and IED attacks have occurred since the Kenyan intervention in Somalia began. Most of these incidents have caused few casualties, leading to a senior Shabaab official telling his Kenyan associates to “stop throwing grenades at buses.” Westgate appears to be the result of top Shabaab planners taking over operations in Kenya to produce the kind of mass-casualty attacks they desire.

As al-Shabaab hoped, some Kenyan opposition politicians have called for a withdrawal from Somalia following the Westgate attack, but Nairobi is unlikely to pull out unless it is satisfied the Somali government can provide adequate security in the border regions. This proposition still seems far off at present, suggesting that Kenya will maintain both political influence and a military presence in southern Somalia for some time. A new security concern is created by Kenyan plans to build a new rail and pipeline corridor carrying oil from South Sudanese and Ugandan sources to the port of Lamu, less than 95 miles from the Somali border.

Al-Shabaab did not obscure the motive for the Westgate attack by offering to negotiate at any point during the standoff. The attack was solely retaliation for Kenyan interference in Somalia with the purpose of influencing public opinion against government policy. The attackers had no expectation of survival – in fact al-Shabaab reacted with great anger to suggestions that any of them might actually have escaped. The loss of Kismayo was a severe blow to al-Shabaab’s financing and ability to re-supply, so Godane decided it was time for radical measures in the face of his movement’s obvious inability to expel the Kenyans by military means.

Kenyan Defense Forces operating in Somalia were absorbed into the AMISOM command in February, though their efforts to create “Jubaland,” a semi-autonomous unofficial buffer state separating Kenya from the rest of Somalia have placed them at odds with the national government in Mogadishu, which is seeking unification of Somalia rather than its further division. Kenyan political and military support for the new administration of Jubaland has unfortunately given the latter the confidence to dismiss delegations from the national government in Mogadishu seeking to improve security cooperation.

A long-term Kenyan presence in southern Somalia may eventually work against restoring security in the area as any situation that is viewed as a foreign, and especially Christian, occupation of Somalia will become a rallying point and recruitment tool for extremists.

Al-Shabaab will also seek to rebuild its jihadi networks inside Nairobi and Mombassa, which have been greatly disrupted by Kenyan security operations in recent months.

Beyond the AMISOM nations, Ethiopia has also been targeted for attack by al-Shabaab for its military operations in the Somali border regions. Tragedy was narrowly averted when two Somali suicide-bombers were killed when their bomb exploded prematurely on their way to a World Cup qualifying match in Addis Ababa. Last month Ethiopia’s foreign ministry said the nation should expect more such attacks.

Puntland

There are also indications that al-Shabaab is once again seeking to expand its terrorist campaign into Puntland, the semi-autonomous north-eastern province of Somalia. A December 5 bombing of a Puntland Marine Forces convoy left eight dead and 37 injured

Only days before, an estimated 40 Shabaab members mounted an unsuccessful assault on the Bossaso Central Prison in Puntland’s capital. The attack coincided with the suicide bombing of the Maka al-Mukarama Hotel in Mogadishu.

Conclusion

A culture of corruption continues to impede efforts to restore security to Somalia; in the annual rankings of corrupt nations released this month by Transparency International, Somalia ranks amongst the three worst, in company with North Korea and Afghanistan. Bribery and other forms of corruption allow Islamist militants to pass freely through security checkpoints designed to prevent attacks. Funds made available by donor nations often fail to reach the frontlines of the fight against terrorism – when police are paid erratically at best, they tend to feel it is their right to engage in corrupt practices. Bomb detection equipment is generally unavailable and the use of sniffer dogs runs counter to local cultural practice.

Terrorist attacks are part of al-Shabaab’s decision to revert to a guerrilla/terrorist campaign in its currently weakened state, which largely precludes more conventional military operations of any size.

Abdi Godane, has now made himself and the rest of the Shabaab leadership the targets of an international man-hunt that may well result in the ultimate death of the Amir and other movement leaders. Military pressure on the movement could foster further internal disputes over Godane’s controversial choice to take the movement in the direction of a globally-focused jihad closer to al-Qaeda Central’s concerns than those of more locally-focused Somali jihadists.

With Kismayo taken, AMISOM’s next major target will be the port of Barawe, the site of October’s unsuccessful SEAL raid, intended to capture Ikrima, the suspected planner of the Westgate Mall attack. Barawe is believed to be a center for the training of suicide bombers and provides Shabaab with revenue from the charcoal trade. A joint offensive by Kenyan and Ugandan led forces would cut off Shabaab from maritime supply routes and link-up the northern and southern AMISOM groups.

AMISOM is confident that force multipliers like helicopters and armored vehicles will allow it to finally destroy al-Shabaab as a military force in the field. However, even if military reinforcements allow AMISOM to resume its offensive against al-Shabaab, the movement could split into terrorist cells operating under Godane’s control in urban areas otherwise under Somali government control. Al-Shabaab forces still roam freely in many areas taken by AMISOM, speaking to the need to effectively garrison these territories. At the moment, AMISOM risks extending its supply lines in rural areas prone to ambushes. Paradoxically, the more weakened al-Shabaab becomes as an insurgent force, the more dangerous it will become as a terrorist group as it struggles to survive under Godane’s ruthless command. The ever-paranoid Shabaab chief will continue to search for spies in his command to avoid being targeted by American drones, though this hyper-vigilance may risk creating further internal splits in the organization. His personal control of the movement raises the problem of whether an effective replacement could be found in the event of his death and the possibility that other al-Shabaab factions might enter negotiations with the government. The question is whether a lengthy terrorist campaign could have the unlikely result of reversing Shabaab’s fortunes, or whether it would be ultimately self-defeating in a nation that is both exhausted by decades of warfare and largely uninterested in al-Shabaab’s religious leadership.

AQAP Commander Says “War on Terrorism Will Ruin U.S. Economy

Andrew McGregor

December 12, 2013

Jihadi forums have begun posting a recent interview conducted with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) commander Nasr bin Ali al-A’ainisi by Yemen’s al-Wasat daily. In the course of the interview, al-A’ainsi described the reasons why AQAP prefers armed rebellion to politics, saying the movement rejected partisanship and democratic activities. When confronted by systems that oppose religious principles, it becomes impossible to form a political party when the imperative is to “remove this system” with all available means, “including jihad and forming an armed organization.” To turn to democracy and the political process would be a type of surrender: “Abandoning arms under a colonial crusader control and hegemony, means acceptance and subordination and bowing before those occupier, and leaving arms under the absence of Shari’a and ruling with what Allah have not revealed, means accepting this reality…” [1]

Nasr bin Ali al-A’ainisi

The AQAP commander warned that a recent direction from al-Qaeda leader Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri ordering jihadis to refrain from killing non-combatants “even if they are the families of those who fight us as much as possible” would have little effect on AQAP tactics and targets:

This is a clear phrase, and it came when speaking about dealing with the local governments and sects that live in the Islamic lands and it doesn’t require what you mentioned from stopping attacks against the American civilians, since the stance of the organization and the fatwa which it adopts is that the American people is a combatant people, while the speech is specific about non-combatants.

In commenting on the September 16 Washington Navy Yard attack by alleged Buddhist Aaron Alexis, al-A’ainisi noted that “the injustice and oppression of America is not only limited to the Muslims.” The commander went on to remind Americans that many nations had not forgotten their humiliations at the hands of the Americans, including Japan and Germany, and were only waiting for the appropriate time to take their revenge: “That’s why I give [Americans] glad tidings of a horrific dark future awaiting them, and the moment of revenge not only from the Muslims but rather from many enemies who cannot forget it even if the Americans forgot them.” Al-A’ainsi says it is important to remember that the American “war on terrorism” has cost five times what the United States spent on World War II, and that this was the principal cause of the forthcoming collapse of the American economy.

Al-A’ainsi rejects the notion that armed rebellion only invites external interference against Yemen: “If we refused any movement or action against the Arab and non-Arab tyrants under the pretext that it increases their tyranny or aggression, that means that we rule on ourselves to be slaves to them for life, for example: is it fair to say that the revolution of the Syrian people against the tyranny of Bashar only brought more foreign Russian – Iranian interference?… The question that should be asked: what have been achieved through submission, subordination and surrender to America for decades?”

AQAP was not invited to the national dialogue conference, according to al-A’ainisi, because the dialogue was sponsored by the United States and excluded the possibility of a Shari’a state. AQAP’s demands are non-negotiable – the prevention of external influence in Yemen, particularly that of the United States and the West, and the implementation of Shari’a “in all the matters of the country.”

Note

1. Abdulrazaq al-Jammal, “Interview with AQAP commander Nasr bin Ali al-A’anisi,” al-Wasat, Sana’a, November 13, 2013; posted on http://www.ansar1.info/showthread.php?p=173586, November 28, 2013.

This article first appeared in the December 12, 2013 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

Libyan Special Forces Expel Ansar al-Shari’a from Benghazi

Andrew McGregor

November 28, 2013

There are conflicting accounts of how the clashes began, but some sort of minor contact between gunmen of Benghazi’s Ansar al-Shari’a and soldiers of the Libyan Saiqa Special Forces Brigade early on November 25 set off heavy fighting that left nine dead and 49 wounded but saw the long-desired expulsion of Ansar al-Shari’a from the city by the end of the day. Ansar al-Shari’a is believed to have been responsible for the 2012 attack on the American consulate in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens. After being previously driven from its Benghazi bases by public demonstrations in September 2012, Ansar al-Shari’a returned quietly five months later, promoting themselves as providers of humanitarian aid, public services and security in a city still struggling to establish an effective administration.

Saiqa Special Forces in Benghazi, November 25

There was a danger during the fighting that Islamist reinforcements might arrive from other Ansar al-Shari’a bases in nearby Derna (where an ongoing assassination campaign has targeted everyone from judges to traffic police) or Ajdabiya, but security officials issued a warning that any convoy attempting to enter or leave Benghazi would be treated as an illegal militia and targeted by military aircraft. The Ansar al-Shari’a militants in Derna are led by Abu Sufyan bin Qumu, a former Guantanamo Bay inmate who was released to Libyan custody in 2007. A column of ten Ansar al-Shari’a “technicals” (gun-mounted 4x4s) attempting to leave Derna for Benghazi were turned back by Libyan Army units from al-Marj and Beida. Two other Islamist militias in Derna, the Abu Salim Brigade and the Army of the Islamic State of Libya, remained at their bases (Libya Herald, November 26).

Ansar al-Shari’a’s detachment in Ajdabiya was forced out of the town on the same day by armed civilians (Libyan News Agency, November 25). Armed civilians also joined the effort to expel Ansar al-Shari’a in Benghazi, but were asked to return home by Saiqa commander Wanis Bukhamada (Libya Herald, November 25). Ansar al-Shari’a also has bases further afield in Misrata and Sirte, but access to Benghazi from the latter base was prevented by a roadblock set up at Wadi Ahmar by the newly created Barqa defense force, the armed element of autonomy-seeking Cyrenaicans in eastern Libya (Libya Herald, November 25; for the Cyrenaican autonomy movement, see Terrorism Monitor, October 31).

Violence returned to the streets of Benghazi on the evening of November 26 – 27 as gunmen threw grenades and clashed with the Libyan Army in three parts of the city. The situation was brought under control as reinforcements were sent to the affected areas. Ansar al-Shari’a elements were suspected, but security spokesmen admitted they were unsure who was responsible (Libya Herald, November 26; Reuters, November 27). Three soldiers were assassinated in Benghazi the same day by unknown assailants.

Laws 27 and 53 of Libya’s ruling General National Council (GNC) call on all Libya’s militias to disband or join the national army by the end of the year. However, this raises the possibility of large numbers of new additions bringing an extremist ideology with them as they are integrated into a national military. Saiqa commander Wanis Bukhamada has promised his Special Forces would use force against any militia that failed to disband and attacked the police and army after that date (Libya Herald, November 26). Bukhamada is a former officer under the Qaddafi regime who defected to the rebels during the revolution and led the liberation of Brega.

There are signs that the security situation in Libya’s two major cities may be shifting in favor of those seeking the removal of the militias from the streets. Most of Tripoli’s warring militias left the city after the Misrata militia discredited its claims to be protecting the people of Tripoli when its fighters opened fire on peaceful demonstrators calling for their removal on November 15, killing 46 and wounding more than 500 more (Ahram Online [Cairo], November 26).

On the same day as the Benghazi clashes, a representative of Ansar al-Shari’a appeared on Libyan TV to announce that all those who chose not to comply with Shari’a in Libya would be fought and killed, as would the French and anyone seeking democracy or secularism. Derna-based commander Mahmoud al-Barassi fueled the GNC’s efforts to disband the militias by saying the GNC and the Army are apostates, insisting Prime Minister Ali Zeidan knows “nothing about Islam” and claiming that all opponents of Ansar al-Shari’a are “enemies.” Other elements of Ansar al-Shari’a were believed to have gone into damage control after al-Barassi’s remarks (Libya al-Ahrar TV, November 25; Libya Herald, November 25). 

This article first appeared in the November 28 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis Intensifies Assassination Campaign in the Sinai

Andrew McGregor

November 28, 2013

Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) is the Egyptian branch of a Gazan Islamist organization that first appeared in the Sinai in the days after the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Since then, ABM has become one of the most active and aggressive of the many militant groups now found in the Sinai. Its latest high-profile operation was the November 17 assassination in Nasr City of Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Mabrouk Abu Khattab of Egypt’s National Security Agency (NSA), one of the leading investigators involved in the prosecution of ex-president Muhammad Mursi and other leading members of the Muslim Brotherhood. In the past, ABM has mounted several attacks on the pipelines that carry Egyptian natural gas to Israeli and Jordanian markets, claimed responsibility for an attack on Israeli troops in September, 2012 and attempted to assassinate Egyptian Interior Minister Muhammad Ibrahim on September 5 (Daily News Egypt, July 26, 2012).

Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Mabrouk

In its claim of responsibility for the murder of Colonel Mabrouk, ABM maintained that it had targeted the senior investigator over the commitment to trial in Alexandria of 15 women and seven girls for participation in a violent pro-Mursi demonstration in Alexandria in October: “[Mabrouk] was one of the major tyrants of the state security apparatus and the assassination was a response to the arrest of free women by this malicious apparatus.” The statement ended by promising further attacks if the women were not freed. [1]Given Mabrouk’s peripheral connection with the Alexandria case, prosecutors suspected the ABM statement was intended to mislead their investigations and asked the Interior Ministry to investigate the declaration (al-Masry al-Youm, November 21).

Suspicion of complicity in the assassination has fallen on the Muslim Brotherhood, which condemned the attack on November 19 and assailed efforts by the media to associate them with the assassination (Daily News Egypt, November 20). The timing of Mabrouk’s murder is noteworthy, as it came shortly before his testimony in the Mursi trial and a week after submitting a CD supporting the charges of spying leveled against the ex-president. Judicial sources have indicated that the CD includes a recording of a phone call between Mursi and al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri as well as another phone conversation in which Mursi admits providing Hamas with information on the security situation in the Sinai (al-Masry al-Youm, November 21). Colonel Mabrouk played a central role in taking down the Muslim Brotherhood leadership, arresting leading members such as Khayrat al-Shater, Essam al-Erian and Muhammad al-Beltagy. The spying charges actually predate Mursi’s removal as president; the case accusing Mursi and 13 other members of the Muslim Brotherhood of spying and illegal contacts with foreign entities was forwarded to prosecutors by the Ismailia Appeals Court on June 23 (al-Ahram Weekly, November 22).  Mabrouk was also expected to be the chief witness in a separate case regarding Mursi’s Hamas-assisted escape from Wadi al-Natrun prison five days after the January 25 Revolution.

According to the ABM statement, the killing was carried out by the Mu’tasim Bi-‘llah Battalion. This ABM faction is named for al-Mu’tasim Bi-‘llah, the eighth Abbasid caliph (795 – 842), known for his fighting skills and his campaigns against the Christian Byzantine Empire. As justification for the murder, the ABM statement cited an episode from the life of the Prophet Muhammad, in which the Prophet attacked and expelled the Jewish Banu Qaynuqa tribe after an incident in the market in which a Jewish goldsmith is said to have pinned the clothes of a Muslim woman so as to cause her to be stripped naked when she walked away. The Jewish merchant was immediately killed by a passing Muslim, who was in turn killed by a Jewish mob, leading to the Prophet’s eventual attack. [2] ABM asks, on the basis of this precedent, what alternative do Muslims have when faced with the detention and assault of hundreds of Muslim women?

Mabrouk’s funeral was attended by Prime Minister Hazem al-Beblawi, Interior Minister Muhammad Ibrahim and several other ministers and high officials. A three-day mourning period was announced by interim president Adli Mansour on November 20 (Egypt State Information Service, November 21). The Interior Ministry claims 152 “martyrs” have been lost to militant activities since Mursi’s June 30 overthrow.

Colonel Mabrouk was only the latest in a series of Interior Ministry personnel (many of whom conceal their identities and rarely work in the field) to be targeted by assassins. Revelations of the existence of “assassination lists” with the home addresses of intelligence officers involved in the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood are reported to have prompted a deadline of January for Interior Minister Muhammad Ibrahim to discover the leak in his Ministry (Ahram Online [Cairo], November 22; al-Ahram Weekly [Cairo], November 22).

On November 21, police in the Delta town of Qaha raided an apartment in search of two suspected terrorists wanted in connection to the murder of Colonel Mabrouk, the attempted assassination of Interior Minister Ibrahim and an attack on a Coptic church. The two were arrested only after a gunfight that killed police Captain Ahmad Samir al-Kabir (al-Masry al-Youm [Cairo], November 21; November 22).

On the following day, the Egyptian Ministry of the Interior announced the arrest of the prime suspect in the Mabrouk assassination, Shady al-Manei, described as a leading member of Bayt al-Maqdis. Al-Manei was alleged to be a subordinate of Muslim Brotherhood deputy guide Muhammad Khayrat al-Shater (presently detained) and was previously imprisoned in connection with the 2005 Taba bombings before being released by ex-president Muhammad Mursi (Egypt State Information Service, November 23). Nabil Na’im, a fierce opponent of the Muslim Brotherhood and leader of Egyptian Islamic Jihad from 1988 to 1992, has accused al-Shater, a prominent businessman, of funding ABM’s strikes on Egyptian security forces (al-Masry al-Youm [Cairo], September 9; for Khayrat al-Shater, see Militant Leadership Monitor, September 2013).

The Egyptian Army has not failed to respond to the ABM’s attacks on security personnel. On November 26, four black Army Humvees pursued and killed Shaykh Abu Munir (a.k.a. Muhammad Hussein Muhareb) and his son at al-Mehediya in the northeast Sinai. Abu Munir was an associate of ABM and a prime suspect in the brutal roadside murder of 25 police recruits dragged from their bus in August (Aswat Masriya [Cairo], November 26; Telegraph, November 26).

On November 20, ABM released the identity of the suicide bomber who attacked the South Sinai security directorate on October 7, killing five soldiers and wounding 50 others. The “martyr,” Muhammad Hamdan al-Sawarka (a.k.a. Abu Hajer), was a member of the Sawarka tribe, one of the Sinai’s largest. The ABM statement also criticized prominent Egyptian Salafist leaders for failing to resist the overthrow of Muhammad Mursi (al-Masry al-Youm [Cairo], November 20).

In his assessment of the Sinai campaign of the Egyptian security forces, Dr. Najih Ibrahim, a founding member of the extremist al-Gama’a al-Islamiya who has since renounced political violence, commented:

This campaign has largely succeeded. Without it, Egypt would have witnessed a long series of car bombings. We must admit that this military campaign prevented the arrival of this danger to the Nile Delta and to Cairo in a major way. Extremists in Sinai can equip a thousand booby-trapped cars and dispatch them to other areas in Egypt. The military campaign destroyed many mine and weapons stockpiles, and many of those who committed terrorist attacks were arrested. Many smuggling tunnels were closed and the sources of funding for these groups in the Sinai were controlled (As-Safir [Cairo], November 25).

Notes

1. Jama’at Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, “Declaring our responsibility for assassinating the criminal Muhammad Mabrouk,” November 19, 2013, http://www.ansar1.info/showthread.php?t=47326

2. The incident is related in Ibn Hisham’s (died c. 830) Al-Sirah al-Nabawiyah , an edited version of Ibn Ishaq’s biography of the Prophet Muhammad (now lost).

This article first appeared in the November 28 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

Oil Exploration and Political Stalemate Threaten to Trigger Renewed Conflict in the Western Sahara

Andrew McGregor

November 28, 2013

The decades-long unresolved conflict over the Western Sahara threatens to heat up again as Algeria and Morocco dispute the future of the region and young members of the Sahrawi Polisario Front (Frente Popular para la Liberación de Saguia el-Hamra y Río de Oro –Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia al-Hamra and Rio de Oro) urge a return to arms against Moroccan “occupiers” rather than spend further decades in refugee camps located in the remote Algerian desert. A general international indifference has preserved the political impasse, in which native Sahrawis demand a referendum on independence and the Moroccan administration offers regional autonomy within a “Greater Morocco.” Giving impetus to the return of the issue to international attention is the growing Moroccan exploitation of the Western Sahara’s resources, including phosphates, fisheries and, potentially, oil and gas.  Omar Mansour, a member of the Polisario’s National Secretariat, has warned: “If the U.N. does not take this seriously to ensure self-determination and that human rights are respected, then we are heading towards a war with regional implications” (Reuters, April 22).

Northwest Africa in the Colonial Period

Background

The Polisario Front was established in May, 1973 with the intent of expelling Spanish colonialists from the colony of Spanish Sahara (1884 – 1973). It gained strength in 1975 when locally-raised Spanish troops began to desert to the Polisario with their weapons. When Spain calculated the cost of retaining the colony in a world increasingly unsympathetic to colonial projects, it decided to defy a UN resolution and simply abandon the region, ceding the larger part of the colony, Saguia al-Hamra, to Morocco, with part of the Rio de Oro going to Mauritania in the 1975 Madrid Tripartite Accords.

The native Sahrawi resistance proclaimed the independent Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976 in response, which Algeria soon recognized in the hope of preventing regional expansion by Morocco. The Sahrawis then launched a costly guerrilla campaign with Libyan support against both Morocco and Mauritania. By 1979, Mauritania, with limited resources and exhausted by years of fierce desert fighting, decided to abandon its claim to the southern Rio de Oro after a military junta arranged a ceasefire, though Morocco quickly stepped in to expand its own claim to the entire Rio de Oro. The Polisario Front was recognized by the UN as the official representative of the Sahrawi people in the same year. The Sahrawis’ conflict with Morocco became increasingly bitter, with both sides committing human rights abuses in a war the international community barely noticed.

Rabat offered to hold a referendum on independence in 1981, but soon withdrew the offer, deciding instead to build a huge and heavily garrisoned sand berm to isolate the Polisario guerrillas in the economically useless and uninhabited regions of the former colony. 1250 miles long and 15 to 30 feet high, the berm is equipped with sensors, landmines and surveillance equipment; any attempt to cross the berm brings out Moroccan fighter jets ready to attack infiltrators in open country. The berm separates inhabitable, resource rich land near the coast from the largely lifeless desert to which the rebel Sahrawis fled in the 1970s and 1980s.

This tactic effectively ended Polisario strikes in the Moroccan-held Western Sahara and forced a 1989 ceasefire. A 1991 ceasefire agreement called for a UN referendum asking Sahrawis whether they wanted independence or integration into Morocco. However, preparations for the referendum broke down when UN organizers experienced difficulty in determining who was or wasn’t eligible to vote from amongst the scattered Sahrawi population.  By this time, Morocco preferred the facts on the ground and has yet to conduct the referendum. Disappointed Polisario leaders have since referred to their homeland as “the last colony in Africa” (Sahara Press Service [al-Aaiun], October 31).

Growing Anger in the Refugee Camps

Cut off from the inhabitable parts of the Western Sahara, the exiled Sahrawis now live in six refugee camps housing 150,000 people centered around the Algerian town of Tindouf, home to an Algerian military base. Twenty-six thousand additional refugees live in Mauritania. The four main camps are named for towns in the Western Sahara – al-Aaiun, Smara, Awserd and Dakhla. “February 27” is a small camp and the administration is run from the Rabouni camp. There are reports of widespread malnutrition and related illnesses in the camps, which rely largely on shipments of food and other aid from the international community (Sahara Press Service [El-Aaiun], November 13).

Political development in the refugee camps has calcified, with government remaining in the hands of an old guard led by Muhammad Abdelaziz, who was elected as Polisario Front secretary-general and president of the Sahrawi Democratic Arab Republic in August 1976 and has remained in these posts ever since, ruling with the help of a small but powerful group of loyalists.

The sole political formation is the Polisario Front, a creation intended to put aside local political rivalries in the interests of presenting a common front demanding self-determination for the Western Sahara. However, this state of affairs is increasingly unable to restrain a growing number of youths (over 50% of the population in the camps is now under 18) who have never set foot in their “homeland,” see no future in the refugee camps and are growingly inclined to resume the armed conflict with Morocco in the face of the apparent satisfaction of the international community with the status quo.  As even President Abdelaziz concedes, “Patience has its limits” (Global Post, November 13).

Abdelaziz has been clear that renewing the armed conflict remains the legitimate right of Sahrawis, but is seeking to avoid new clashes with a far stronger power that could easily devastate the Sahrawi community in open warfare. Time is not working in favor of the Sahrawis holding out for independence in the refugee camps – with the gradual return of some refugees and a growing population of Moroccan migrants, the Western Saharan administrative capital of al-Aaiun alone now holds twice as many people as the combined refugee camps in Algeria.

Security in the camps is provided by Polisario internal security forces and the 6,000 to 7,000 man Ejercito de Liberación Popular Saharaui (ELPS – Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army), the military wing of the Polisario Front. The ELPS fields a variety of vintage Soviet equipment donated by Algeria and a range of equipment captured from the Spanish, Moroccans and Mauritanians. The Polisario administers its own justice and maintains its own detention facilities. Sahrawi dissidents accuse the movement of human rights abuses, including the torture and disappearance of dissidents (Sahara News, August 7).

Morocco has the upper hand in the constant propaganda warfare with the Polisario Front, disseminating its views and castigating the Polisario for alleged human rights abuses and purported ties to Islamist terrorist groups in a number of English-language websites designed to influence Western (especially American) opinion. For its part, the Polisario accuse Rabat of paying former refugees to produce lurid accounts of torture, illegal imprisonment and repression in the Polisario camps.

The Moroccan Approach

Morocco has devised a plan for regional autonomy as an alternative to holding a referendum on independence and has tried to gain international support for its claim by announcing an $18 billion investment plan intended to double the region’s GDP and create 120,000 jobs (African Energy, November 25).

Though efforts to obtain diplomatic recognition of its claim over the Western Sahara have faltered, Morocco has proceeded with the economic development of the territory based on an ambiguous legal ruling issued by the UN in 2002. Morocco inherited a major phosphates mining operation from Spain and is in negotiations with the EU to expand its fishing zone to include the profitable waters of Western Sahara. Now Kosmos Energy and partner Cairn Energy plan to begin oil exploration in a Moroccan-licensed offshore block next year. This latest development has enraged the Polisario Front, which stated that it was against “exploiting the sovereign resources of the Saharawi people without their consent while we remain under an illegal occupation… Western Sahara remains occupied as a matter of international law and so the taking of petroleum is clearly a war crime” (African Energy, November 25).

Map Showing the Division of the Western Sahara by the Berm

Diplomatic Tensions Between Morocco and Algeria

Despite Morocco’s efforts to depict an atmosphere of calm satisfaction in the Western Sahara, demonstrations in al-Aaiun demanding the immediate withdrawal of Moroccan forces from the Western Sahara and an end to resource exploitation in the region erupted into clashes with police as the protesters raised the banned Sahrawi flag during an October visit by Christopher Ross, the UN Secretary General’s envoy to the Western Sahara (Sahara Press Service [al-Aaiun], November 12).  The Polisario claimed over 100 injured during a crackdown by authorities, but local government in al-Aaiun claimed the incident involved only “children who wanted to throw stones at the security forces”(Agencia EFE [Madrid], October 20). Pro-Moroccan sources accused “infiltrators” of disguising themselves in Moroccan police uniforms before entering homes, abusing residents and looting valuables (Polisario-Confidential.org, October 24).

In an October 29 speech (read on his behalf by Algerian justice minister Tayeb Louh), Algerian president Abdelaziz urged new responsibilities for the UN peacekeeping force operating in the Western Sahara: “The necessity to set up a human rights monitoring mechanism in Western Sahara is more topical than ever… Algeria remains convinced that the expansion of the MINURSO (Misión de las Naciones Unidas para la Organización de un Referéndum en el Sáhara Occidental – United Nations Mission for Referendum in Western Sahara) mandate to include human rights monitoring is a necessity” (Sahara Press Service [al-Aaiun], October 29). At present, MINURSO does not include human rights monitors amongst its roughly 250 uniformed and civilian personnel.

An outraged Morocco recalled its ambassador to Algeria on October 30, though Algiers described the move as “an unfortunate decision based and spurious motives and detrimental to the sovereignty of Algeria” (Institute for Security Studies [Addis Ababa], November 11). Bouteflika’s remarks were interpreted by Moroccan foreign minister Salaheddine Mezouar as an indication of Algeria’s direct involvement in trying to influence the West Sahara issue and its “calculated plans” to challenge Morocco’s territorial integrity (al-Sharq al-Awsat, November 8). Morocco’s monarchist Istiqlal Party issued renewed calls for the government to retake the southeastern provinces of Tindouf and Bechar, transferred to Algeria by France during the colonial era. Algerian foreign minister Ramtane Lamamra called Istiqlal’s statement “totally unacceptable and irresponsible” (al-Arabiya/AFP, October 30; North Africa Post, October 31). Morocco tried unsuccessfully to retake the provinces as part of its “Greater Morocco” strategy in 1963’s “Sand War” with Algeria. The war did, however, see the introduction of massive defensive sand berms by Morocco, a tactic later successfully applied in Western Sahara to isolate the Polisario.

Morocco’s King Muhammad VI declared that his nation would not be lectured to by “those who systematically trample on human rights.” Bouteflika’s remarks also sparked a November 1 (Algeria’s national day) demonstration outside the Algerian consulate in Casablanca in which a young Moroccan member of the Jeunnesses Royalistes (Royal Youth) tore down the Algerian flag in the consulate compound. Though authorities charged the individual, Foreign Minister Lamamra protested that the detainee was treated as a hero in some quarters of Morocco and termed the incident an “insult” to Algeria (AFP, November 14; North Africa Post, November 11). Lamamra, a veteran diplomat, is considered an expert on the West Saharan issue and can be expected to take a hardline on the matter. Algeria’s press called the incident a deliberate provocation and “an attack on the sovereignty of the country” (Le Jeune Indépendant [Algiers], November 2; Le Quotidien d’Oran, November 2). The Polisario Front jumped into the dispute as well, expressing its “outrage against this despicable act which once again confirms the contempt of the Moroccan State in respect of international law, values of brotherhood and good neighborliness and diplomatic practice” (L’Expression [Algiers], November 6).

In a speech given on November 6, the 38th anniversary of the “Green March” that claimed the Western Sahara for Morocco, King Muhammad VI accused Algeria of paying various human rights organizations to produce reports critical of Morocco’s administration in the Western Sahara. Other critics “unfairly and inimically believe anyone who claims that his rights were trampled or that he was tortured,” adding that all nations had the right to preserve their own security in the face of dangers. Referring to the Polisario specifically, the King said: “Anybody who takes issue with Morocco only has to go down to Tindouf and witness violations to the most basic of human rights…” (Al Monitor, November 8).

Bouteflika’s position on human rights monitoring in the Western Sahara was nearly identical to that advanced by the United States at the UN in April before angry reaction from Rabat and Paris convinced Washington to move more quietly on the issue.  Rabat is extremely sensitive to accusations of human rights abuses in Western Sahara, going so far as to declare the UN Secretary General’s envoy to Western Sahara, Christopher Ross, persona non grata in Morocco after he made a statement on the issue last year.

The Western Sahara issue has prevented the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) from achieving anything of consequence, with its two largest members at permanent odds. There are very real costs associated with this disharmony: according to the African Economic Commission, a functioning Maghreb Union would result in a five percent growth of GDP in each of the five member nations, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania (al-Jazeera, July 31). Bachir Mustapha Essayd, a member of the Polisario’s National Secretariat, recently suggested that the 1975 Madrid Agreement and Morocco’s interpretation of it pose a significant obstacle in developing relationships between Maghreb region nations: “Morocco is the only [country] responsible for the instability in the region… These agreements stand as an obstacle to all Maghreb countries… Spain gave territory to Morocco that did not belong to it” (Sahara Press Service [al-Aaiun], November 14).

The border between Algeria and Morocco was closed in 1994 after Rabat accused Algeria’s secret services and the Islamist militant Groupe Islamique Armé (GIA) of the bombing of a hotel in Marrakesh in which two Spaniards were killed. Algeria in turn accused Rabat of hosting the GIA and the border has been closed (except to an active smuggling trade) ever since.

A Growing Security Threat?

Cooperation between Morocco and Algeria on security issues and other matters has reached low ebb. A mid-November conference of 17 regional foreign ministers hosted by Rabat and intended to strengthen border security in north and west Africa was forced to go ahead without the presence of an Algerian deputation, a crippling absence given that Algeria is the largest and most powerful nation in the region (Middle East Online, November 14). Regional security efforts mean little when the two strongest militaries in the region refuse to cooperate.

Malian foreign minister Tiéman Coulibaly claimed in March that the al-Qaeda-associated Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) was recruiting Sahrawi youths from the refugee camps as mercenaries (LeMag [Marrakesh], March 16). A Sahrawi was among those captured after the battle in northern Mali in which AQIM commander Abu Zeid was killed (Le Figaro [Paris], March 1). There are also reports that Sahrawis from the Polisario camps are participating in smuggling networks that cross the region, though it appears that the opportunity for young unemployed Sahrawis to make money is a greater factor than ideology in leading individuals to the criminal and terrorist networks operating in the Sahel-Sahara region. The camps remain a potential source of militants for AQIM and MUJWA, but at the present, young Sahrawi youth appear to be more interested in resuming a nationalist fight against Morocco than in joining the global jihad.

The kidnapping of three European aid workers from the Tindouf camp by AQIM operatives in October, 2011 appeared to be a sign that the North African jihad was beginning to encroach on the Sahrawi refugee camps, with Moroccan sources suggesting the abductions were carried out by Polisario itself in league with jihadists working under the late Amir Abu Zeid (Polisario-confidential.org, December 2, 2011; AFP, October 30, 2011). Pro-Moroccan sources said the kidnappings had confirmed “the active complicity between Polisario elements and AQIM,” though incriminating details were not forthcoming (Polisario-confidential.org, November 14, 2011). The hostages were eventually freed in Mali in July, 2012 after payment of a ransom.

Cooperation between the secular Polisario Front and the Islamist extremists of the type suggested by Morocco seems unlikely – as Polisario president Muhammad Abdelaziz notes, the Islamists don’t consider Polisario to be a Muslim movement: “They will not forgive us for being a democratic movement. They will not forgive us for having equality for men and women” (PBS, October 25).

Conclusion

Growing resource development and the spread of Islamist militancy in the region are both capable of either intensifying the Western Sahara conflict or compelling a final settlement. The existing ceasefire has allowed the West, the UN and the African Union to assign a low priority to such a settlement, but changing conditions will demand action on this front. Renewed U.S. and French interest in resolving the problem is a promising development, but both parties will have to deal with the competing narratives offered by Morocco (an independent Western Sahara will represent a regional security threat) and the Polisario and their Algerian sponsors (Sahrawis have the right to self-determination as mandated by the United Nations). Should international indifference continue, the leaders of the Polisario Front will experience growing difficulty in keeping frustrated Sahrawi youth trapped in the camps of Tindouf from renewing the armed struggle and shattering the political solidarity and common purpose that is the cornerstone of the Polisario Front. Given that the resumption of such a conflict using guerrilla tactics would be largely futile against Moroccan defenses and overall military might, this would raise the possibility asymmetric tactics such as bombings, assassinations and kidnappings could be introduced to press Morocco to accept a vote on self-determination. Though the Salafist-Jihadist ideology has yet to make significant inroads in the refugee camps, an assault on the Polisario political consensus would likely create new political/militant formations, some of which might be agreeable to accepting assistance from the Islamist militants operating in the region.

This article first appeared in the November 28, 2013 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

Merger of Northern Mali Rebel Movements Creates Political Distance from Islamist Militants

Andrew McGregor

November 14, 2013

Proclaiming that the move was the only means of securing peace in northern Mali, the three largest rebel movements in the region announced their merger on November 4. The merger brings together the normally hostile members of one Arab militia, the Mouvement Arabe de l’Azawad (MAA), and two Tuareg groups, the secular Mouvement National de Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA) and the Haut Conseil pour l’Unité de l’Azawad (HCUA), which contains many former members of the al-Qaeda-allied Islamist Ansar al-Din movement.  No name has been chosen for the new movement, which will be effective “within 45 days” after approval had been given by the membership of each group (Soir de Bamako, November 4; al-Jazeera, November 5; AFP, November 5). The rebel movements are looking to present a united front after withdrawing from peace talks with the central government on September 26. Reports of a forthcoming decision to merge, undertaken by delegations of the three groups based at the now-suspended peace talks in the Burkina Faso capital of Ouagadougou, were given a hostile reception by groups of youths in Kidal (Maliactu.net, November 1). 

French Chief-of-Staff Admiral Guillaud Reviews Malian Troops (RP Defense)

In Bamako, there are fears that jihadists are re-infiltrating the north to recover weapons caches buried beneath the sand, as well as concerns about what much of the Malian press regards as duplicity from Paris in dealing with the north – the locally so-called “Dutch policy” (in reference to French president François Hollande), under which Paris is accused of arranging a separate deal with the MNLA with only a symbolic presence in Kidal from the Malian national government (L’Annonceur [Bamako], November 7; Maliactu.net, October 30; Les Échos [Bamako], November 6). During a recent visit to Mali, French Armed Forces chief-of-staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud expressed the ambivalence in France’s relationship with the MNLA rebels by saying that “France is neither pro, nor anti-MNLA.” Admiral Guillaud was reported to have discussed a defense agreement between the French and Malian militaries of a type unique to the former French colonies in Africa. Guillaud also promised to maintain French air support, Special Forces units in northern Mali and an operational headquarters at the Bamako-Senou International Airport (Maliactu.net, October 17; L’Essor [Bamako], October 10).

The Arab MAA was formed in February 2012 (initially under the name Front de Libération Nationale de l’Azawad – FLNA) as a self-defense militia incorporating members of earlier Arab militias and Arab soldiers of the Malian Army who deserted after the fall of Timbuktu to Islamist groups last year (For clashes between the MNLA and MAA, see Terrorism Monitor Brief, June 3).

Despite the merger, the MNLA was accused of mounting a November 8 attack on a Malian military patrol in Egazargane, roughly 86 miles from the town of Menaka, though it is possible the clash was the result of a disagreement that followed a small collision between vehicle belonging to the army and the MNLA, respectively (Maliactu.net, November 8; AFP, November 10).

Efforts to arrive at a settlement in northern Mali have been further complicated by the abduction and murder on November 2 of two French nationals working for Radio France Internationale, Ghislaine Dupont and Claude Verlon. Malian intelligence sources have said the kidnapping was the work of Baye Ag Bakabo, an ethnic Tuareg who was a low-level member of Abd al-Karim al-Targui’s unit of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) before he was expelled on suspicion of stealing money. In this regard, the kidnappings may have been a failed attempt to compensate al-Targui through significant ransoms for the two journalists and work his way back into the group, a scenario suggested by Bakabo’s relations in Kidal (Journal du Mali, November 9; AP, November 6). Al-Targui is a prime suspect in a number of high-profile abductions carried out in recent years in northern Mali. A statement issued by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb claimed responsibility for the abductions and murders as “a response to crimes committed by France against Malians and the work of African and international forces against the Muslims of Azawad” (Sahara Media [Nouakchott], November 6). There was speculation from military sources that Baye ag Bakabo had joined the MNLA in the interests of obscuring his past engagement with AQIM (Maliactu.net, November 8). Many Tuareg have displayed a notable fluidity in their organizational allegiance.

The two French nationals were seized outside the home of an MNLA official in Kidal that they had planned to interview. The pursuit of the kidnappers started quickly and in force, with ground troops on the trail being assisted by two Rafale fighter-jets diverted from another operation in northern Mali and a pair of helicopters dispatched from the air-strip at Tessalit (Le Monde, November 8). Although the kidnappers escaped, the bodies of the two journalists were discovered, killed either through panic on the part of their abductors or on the orders of al-Targui as pursuers closed in.  Nine militants were reported to have been arrested in connection with the case on November 8 (Reuters, November 8).

MNLA vice-president Mahamadou Djeri Maiga said the movement had been “humiliated” by the abductions and were further concerned by the attitude of security authorities, who have declined offers of assistance from the MNLA in finding the perpetrators, though the movement is making its own enquiries: “We will share our results with those responsible for the case. We cannot sit idly by and do nothing” (AFP, November 4). The deaths of the journalists have been used in some quarters in Bamako to argue that the Tuareg movements are incapable of administering Kidal or Azawad as autonomous regions (Le Pays [Ouagadougou], November 6). A French government spokesman said on November 4 that France would “probably” increase its military presence in Mali in response to the slayings (Maliactu.net, November 4).

Bamako has backed off from its prior insistence that all arrest warrants issued for leading Tuareg rebels be carried out prior to arriving at a settlement for the north. On October 29, the central government announced it was lifting arrest warrants issued for Ibrahim ag Muhammad Assaleh of the MNLA and Ahmada ag Bibi and brothers Muhammad and Alghabass ag Intallah of the HCUA, the latter pair being the sons of the powerful leader of the Ifoghas Tuareg of Kidal, Intallah ag Attaher (for Alghabass ag Intallah, see Militant Leadership Monitor, January 2013). The reason given was the measure was needed to “facilitate the pursuit of the process of national reconciliation” (AFP, October 29). Ag Bibi and the Intallah brothers are all candidates in the November 24 parliamentary elections.

A number of Malian and African human rights organizations have opposed lifting the arrest warrants, claiming they would promote a climate of impunity for individuals accused of serious crimes, such as war, crimes, murder, rebellion and terrorism. According to the leader of the Malian Association of Human Rights, a political solution to the Mali crisis “cannot be at the expense of the victims of the crisis or the independence of the judiciary” (L’Essor [Bamako], October 24).

Further talks with the rebel movements are scheduled to take place this month, but Bamako’s position has been consistent – it will not consider autonomy for the north under any circumstances.

This article was first published in the November 14, 2013 issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor.

Berbers Seize Libyan Oil Terminal to Press Demand for Recognition

Andrew McGregor

November 14, 2013

The ongoing and economically crippling occupation of Libya’s Mellitah gas and oil terminal (63 miles west of Tripoli) by armed Berber protesters actually became worse on November 12, when workers at the terminal launched a 72-hour strike to protest the occupation, leaving open the possibility of major power cuts to Libyan coastal and mountain communities (Libya Herald, November 12).

The Mellitah oil terminal, which has a capacity of handling 160,000 barrels per day (bpd), is one of several major terminals in Libya suffering blockades by armed gunmen; others include the 340,000 bpd al-Sidr and the 220,000 bpd Ras Lanuf terminals (for the broader implications of the various blockades, see Terrorism Monitor, October 31). The Berber protests at the terminal began on October 26, when armed men gave the ruling General National Congress (GNC) energy committee a one-week ultimatum regarding language rights and increased representation on Libya’s constitutional committee before they would shut the terminal down.

Libya’s constitutional committee has allotted six seats of 60 to Libya’s minorities; two for the Berbers (the self-called Imazighen), two for the Tuareg and two for the Tubu of southern Libya. The method of assembling the committee has been a source of intense disagreement over whether members should be selected or elected directly, with the latter choice eventually prevailing, even though it has meant further delays in beginning the committee’s work. In the meantime, much of the country is at a standstill until the new Libyan state is defined and organized.  Berber representatives to the GNC resigned in July after failing to persuade the Congress to make Amazigh, the language of the Berbers, an official language of Libya.

Berber anger at the constitutional process has been building for several months. In mid-August, Berber protesters demanding recognition of minority rights forced their way into the Libyan parliament in Tripoli, smashing furniture and breaking windows (Reuters, August 14). In late September, Berber youth from the western Jabal Nafusa region cut off a gas pipeline to protest the absence of the Amazigh language from the proposed constitution (Middle East Online, September 30; AFP, October 1).

Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has warned of serious consequences if the oil blockades are not removed soon, including impediments to Libya’s ability to cover its budget expenditures, beginning in December. The GNC’s inability to pay nearly $100 million owed for earlier imports of wheat now threatens the ability of Libyan wheat importers to make further purchases for the heavily subsidized bread industry (Reuters, November 6). Zeidan specifically mentioned the blockage of the Mellitah terminal as having the potential of forcing Italy to seek its oil and gas elsewhere (Reuters, November 10). The Mellitah terminal is owned jointly by Italy’s Eni Petroleum and the Libyan state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC). According to Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni, the Berber occupiers are pressuring the company to cut gas supplies to Italy (Reuters, November 6). Eni is the largest foreign oil company operating in Libya and was responsible for producing some 270,000 bpd before the fall of Qaddafi.

The Berber gunmen are led by Adel al-Falu, a former Libyan army officer once tasked with protecting the Mellitah terminal. With oil exports from the terminal halted, al-Falu is now seeking to halt gas exports through trans-Mediterranean pipelines to Italy, with the objective of pressuring Italy and the European Union to force Libya’s GNC to recognize the Amazigh language (Reuters, November 8). Most of the 50 to 75 gunmen occupying Mellitah arrived from the nearby town of Zuwara in coast-guard boats the Berbers seized during the 2011 revolution. Many of the occupiers are veterans of the revolution. Zuwara has been in the midst of a revival of Berber culture and language since the launch of the revolution (Agence de Presse Kabyle, September 19, 2011). The Amazigh name for Zuwara incorporates the name of the Berber group that lives in the area, Tamurt n Wat Willul (Town of the Ait Willul) (for Berber communities in Libya, see Terrorism Monitor Brief, Pt. 1, May 5 2011; Pt. 2, May 12, 2011). Zuwara is the hometown of Nuri Abu Sahmain, the chairman of Libya’s ruling body, the Tripoli-based GNC. The largest concentration of Libya’s approximate 600,000 Berbers (roughly 10% of the population) reside around the western town of Jadu in the Jabal Nafusa region, the home of a Berber militia that played a vital role in the overthrow of the late Mu’ammar Qaddafi.

The International Berber Flag Flies outside the Mellitah Terminal (AFP)

The Libyan protests are part of a larger movement to revive the Berber language and its dialects in North Africa after centuries of official and unofficial repression designed to replace Amazigh with Arabic. The problem now, however, is finding qualified instructors of Amazigh. Few such exist in Libya, meaning that only one school in southern Libya will begin teaching Amazigh next year (The National [Abu Dhabi], November 5). In Zuwara, some primary schools have succeeded in hiring Amazigh language teachers from Algeria and Morocco (Reuters, November 8).

There is little consensus on the exact extent of the blockade at the Mellitah terminal, in terms of both oil and gas exports. Even as the Prime Minister warns of the long-term impact of the blockade, NOC spokesmen have maintained that the occupiers are limited to a small part of the terminal and that “the complex is working as normal,” with ships loading oil and gas continuing to flow through the Greenstream pipeline to Sicily. On the same day, however, Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni said the Mellitah terminal was “under attack” (Libya Herald, November 6). The Mellitah occupation does not appear to have affected gas flows to Italy through the Greenstream pipeline from the offshore al-Bouri field. The Berber occupiers announced on November 6 that they would cut off the Greenstream gas pipeline (AFP, November 6). On November 8, however, the militants said they would restore gas glows on November 10 as a “good-will gesture,” but with the warning that the pipeline would be cut if the number of seats allotted to the Berber community on the constitutional committee was not increased (Libya Herald, November 8).

Unable to enforce the writ of the central government anywhere in Libya without the cooperation of local armed militias, the Libyan Prime Minister has also warned recently of the possibility of foreign military intervention unless the nation rallies to eliminate the armed groups: “The international community cannot tolerate a state in the middle of the Mediterranean that is a source of violence, terrorism and murder” (al-Jazeera, November 10).

This article first appeared in the November 14, 2013 issue of Terrorism Monitor.